A few weeks ago I indicated that the rising price of oil was based more on speculation rather than supply and demand. I also pointed to the price of oil peaking this year, with prices likely to fall over the next one to two years to around $70 a barrel. In the last two weeks the US government has introduced plans to reduce the speculation on oil prices, which has subsequently seen the price of oil fall. While it is still too early to confirm whether oil has peaked, the signs are very encouraging. If it does start to move down I don’t believe it will be a swift retreat, rather I expect it will be steady decline over the next 12 months.

So what can we expect in the market?

Last week the All Ordinaries index fell to a low of 4880 on Wednesday 16 July, and has since risen strongly to reach a high of 5209.60 as of Wednesday 23rd July. Whilst the fall was close to my target of 4800, I am not convinced that the fall is over. My current expectation is that the current move up will last between one to four weeks before it finds any resistance, although in my opinion the longer the upward move the better.

For the market to prove it is bullish again, we need to see it hold above 4880 points. While it will fall away to test the recent low, the move down needs to be short lived. Currently the medium term direction of the market is uncertain, as it is still possible it could fall away to trade around 4300 points, which is the next support level on the All Ordinaries Index.

Remember, until the market proves it is bullish, we need to assume that it will continue to be bearish. Given that the market has yet to prove it is bullish, is it is far safer to sit and watch it unfold before making any decisions. Once the market confirms it is bullish there will be many opportunities to profit in top blue chip shares during the remainder of the year. Right now I encourage investors to sit tight.

Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst
Wealth Within

Dale Gillham, ‘one of the country’s most respected analysts’ (Wealth Creator Magazine, Nov/Dec 2004), sought after key note speaker and author of the best selling book ‘How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%’, has assisted thousands of traders and investors to become confident and profitable in their direct share investments. Tired of an industry saturated by quick fix gimmicks and expensive short-courses, Dale co-founded Wealth Within to provide ‘ real education and ongoing personalised support’, as well as independent investment advice to traders and investors who have become disillusioned by the market for one reason or another. As testament to this, Wealth Within launched Australia’s first and only nationally accredited Diploma and Advanced Diploma of Share Trading and Investment.

For more information please visit www.wealthwithin.com.au

When analysing the market, it is important to always review the historical patterns to assist in forming a view of what may occur in the future. It is a well known fact that the All Ordinaries has a history of making a major low approximately every 4 years, and with the last 4 year low occurring in March 2003, it is obvious that we are well over due for the current 4 year low.

The longest period in history for the 4 year low to unfold on our market is 64 months between July 1982 and Nov 1987 and currently the market has been unfolding for 61 months since March 2003. Given that the average length of the 4 year low is around 50 months, it is evident that the low could occur at any time. While the opportunities will be plentiful when the low is confirmed, investors will need to exercise caution by only investing in large companies that generally lead market recoveries.

So what can we expect in the market?

This week the market continued to sustain its downward trend falling to a low of 4880 on Wednesday 16 July, which is now the 8th successive week that the market has fallen. While it is rare for the market to fall for such a sustained period I still believe it will rebound over the next one or two weeks.

Given the level at which the market fell to this week, it is also possible that we may see an end to the current fall and the market return to being bullish, however, only time will tell. Given that anything is possible in the current market conditions, it is important that investors protect their capital in preparation for the next bull run, which I do not believe is too far away. I expect the market to find support around 4800 points although if it falls through this level it could fall to the next support level of around 4300 points.

Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst
Wealth Within

A few weeks ago I indicated that the rising price of oil was based more on speculation rather than supply and demand. I also pointed to the price of oil peaking this year, with prices likely to fall over the next one to two years to around $70 a barrel. In the last two weeks the US government has introduced plans to reduce the speculation on oil prices, which has subsequently seen the price of oil fall. While it is still too early to confirm whether oil has peaked, the signs are very encouraging. If it does start to move down I don’t believe it will be a swift retreat, rather I expect it will be steady decline over the next 12 months.

So what can we expect in the market?

Last week the All Ordinaries index fell to a low of 4880 on Wednesday 16 July, and has since risen strongly to reach a high of 5209.60 as of Wednesday 23rd July. Whilst the fall was close to my target of 4800, I am not convinced that the fall is over. My current expectation is that the current move up will last between one to four weeks before it finds any resistance, although in my opinion the longer the upward move the better.

For the market to prove it is bullish again, we need to see it hold above 4880 points. While it will fall away to test the recent low, the move down needs to be short lived. Currently the medium term direction of the market is uncertain, as it is still possible it could fall away to trade around 4300 points, which is the next support level on the All Ordinaries Index.

Remember, until the market proves it is bullish, we need to assume that it will continue to be bearish. Given that the market has yet to prove it is bullish, is it is far safer to sit and watch it unfold before making any decisions. Once the market confirms it is bullish there will be many opportunities to profit in top blue chip shares during the remainder of the year. Right now I encourage investors to sit tight.

Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst
Wealth Within

Dale Gillham, ‘one of the country’s most respected analysts’ (Wealth Creator Magazine, Nov/Dec 2004), sought after key note speaker and author of the best selling book ‘How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%’, has assisted thousands of traders and investors to become confident and profitable in their direct share investments. Tired of an industry saturated by quick fix gimmicks and expensive short-courses, Dale co-founded Wealth Within to provide ‘ real education and ongoing personalised support’, as well as independent investment advice to traders and investors who have become disillusioned by the market for one reason or another. As testament to this, Wealth Within launched Australia’s first and only nationally accredited Diploma and Advanced Diploma of Share Trading and Investment.

For more information please visit www.wealthwithin.com.au

There is an old saying that the darkest hour is just before dawn and this is, at times, a very appropriate phrase when referring to the share market. In October 1997 experts were predicting a global meltdown as a result of the Asia crisis, yet our market rose 40% over the next two years. The same situation arose following the tech wreck in 2000, yet our market rose over 18% the following year.

Following the September 11 crisis, experts where once again predicting doom and gloom for the world economies, but our market only fell around 6% over the next 18 months into March 2003. Since then, we have had the biggest bull market in history, therefore the pull back in the previous 12 months is a natural process whereby the market is simply adjusting to more realistic levels. Since the Asia crisis our market has risen nearly 130%, despite three major events that were predicted to have enormous impact on our economy. The question that remains then, is it time to buy? Not yet but it is getting pretty dark, so be prepared.

So what can we expect in the market?

Over the past seven weeks the market has been in a sustained down move, with the All Ordinaries falling to a low of 4999 on Thursday 10 July. The last time our market fell for a prolonged period was the eight-week fall into the March 2003 low. Given this it is highly likely that our market will rebound over the next one or two weeks.

While it is possible the rebound will signal an end to the current market fall, I believe it is likely to be short lived as I am expecting the market to fall away one more time to exhaust the current downtrend to eventually find support around 4800 points. While I would urge investors to remain patient, I believe it is time to get ready to take advantage of the next bullish move, which will occur in the not to distant future. As I have indicated previously, I still expect the second half of this year to produce good profits for those who are patient.

Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst
Wealth Within

A few weeks ago I indicated that the rising price of oil was based more on speculation rather than supply and demand. I also pointed to the price of oil peaking this year, with prices likely to fall over the next one to two years to around $70 a barrel. In the last two weeks the US government has introduced plans to reduce the speculation on oil prices, which has subsequently seen the price of oil fall. While it is still too early to confirm whether oil has peaked, the signs are very encouraging. If it does start to move down I don’t believe it will be a swift retreat, rather I expect it will be steady decline over the next 12 months.

So what can we expect in the market?

Last week the All Ordinaries index fell to a low of 4880 on Wednesday 16 July, and has since risen strongly to reach a high of 5209.60 as of Wednesday 23rd July. Whilst the fall was close to my target of 4800, I am not convinced that the fall is over. My current expectation is that the current move up will last between one to four weeks before it finds any resistance, although in my opinion the longer the upward move the better.

For the market to prove it is bullish again, we need to see it hold above 4880 points. While it will fall away to test the recent low, the move down needs to be short lived. Currently the medium term direction of the market is uncertain, as it is still possible it could fall away to trade around 4300 points, which is the next support level on the All Ordinaries Index.

Remember, until the market proves it is bullish, we need to assume that it will continue to be bearish. Given that the market has yet to prove it is bullish, is it is far safer to sit and watch it unfold before making any decisions. Once the market confirms it is bullish there will be many opportunities to profit in top blue chip shares during the remainder of the year. Right now I encourage investors to sit tight.

Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst
Wealth Within

Dale Gillham, ‘one of the country’s most respected analysts’ (Wealth Creator Magazine, Nov/Dec 2004), sought after key note speaker and author of the best selling book ‘How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%’, has assisted thousands of traders and investors to become confident and profitable in their direct share investments. Tired of an industry saturated by quick fix gimmicks and expensive short-courses, Dale co-founded Wealth Within to provide ‘ real education and ongoing personalised support’, as well as independent investment advice to traders and investors who have become disillusioned by the market for one reason or another. As testament to this, Wealth Within launched Australia’s first and only nationally accredited Diploma and Advanced Diploma of Share Trading and Investment.

For more information please visit www.wealthwithin.com.au

The price of oil continues to rise, but the question on most people’s minds is why is it going up and how far will it go? In my opinion, it has nothing to do with the laws of supply and demand and everything to do with speculators pushing the price higher. As we all know, speculation drove the tech boom, which resulted in companies trading at prices well above their true value, and the same can be said for oil.

How far the price of oil will rise is anyone’s guess but what I do know is that just as the tech boom came to an end so will the oil boom. And when it does the price will fall considerably with my early estimates being to around $70 a barrel. The good news is that I believe the price of oil will peak this year, which will see oil prices fall away over the next one to years resulting in cheaper petrol making many motorists very happy.

So what can we expect in the market?

The market has achieved many new milestones in the previous 12 months, most of which have not been good for investors. The only positive milestone was that the market made a new all time high in November 2007, however, since then it has fallen around 26.24% making it the largest fall in 20 years.

Yesterday the All Ordinaries Index fell below the March 2008 low and in doing so confirmed that the normal 4 year cycle on our market has now stretched out to well over 5 years given that the last 4 year low occurred in March 2003. Given this, I now firmly believe that the market will continue to fall to find support around 4800 points, which if you remember was my original target for the 4 year low from mid last year. As we have now entered the time period for the yearly low, I believe this low will occur any time now up to around mid August.

Once again, I urge investors to be patient because when the market turns bullish there will be some great opportunities to be had.

Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst
Wealth Within