Listen to this Australian Share Market Report via audio podcast just click Upfront Investor

At this time of year we get bombarded with information in both property and shares from experts about where the best investments can be found for the year. As an expert I too have recorded my thoughts for the year on my blog, and whilst this sort of information can be helpful to investors and traders, at times it can also be detrimental. Let me explain..  

Often I am astounded in how people wrongly interpret information given by experts in their field. These experts can write thousands of words or record hours on how good a market will be, and in one small piece mention that a certain part of a market may be weak. However all the investor or trader seems to hear is the ‘market is bearish’ and so does not invest. We also get the flipside when discussing the many negatives of a share, offering only one positive, and again the investor only wants to hear that they should buy the share when this was not the intention of the comments.

Our beliefs and emotions can and do cloud our judgement, and in turn they filter what we hear and see into our expectation of what we want to hear or see. Experts can be wrong and experts can be biased; so it is always wise to do your own research and know for yourself why you are making your investment decision. Lastly always look at what the expert is really saying and not what you think they are saying as you could be wrong.                

What do we expect in the market?

The market has continued to move cautiously upward over the past week, which is an excellent sign for what is in store for the coming month. Now the holidays are over we should see volumes in our market rise and with it the Australian All Ordinaries Index should rise to highs not seen since mid-last year. 

As mentioned last week my analysis still points to a rise over the next two to four weeks to around 4500 points and possibly higher to around 4600 points. If I am correct, the next high on our market should occur sometime between very late February and mid-March. Sectors that I see that may provide opportunities this year are Materials and Energy with my dark horse being Health. All of these sectors have been hit hard over the past six to twelve months and each sector has great icon stocks within it which should do well over the longer term.

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Dale Gillham

Chief Analyst, Wealth Within

Dale Gillham, ‘one of the country’s most respected analysts’ (Wealth Creator Magazine, Nov/Dec 2004), sought after key note speaker and author of the best selling book ‘How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%’, has assisted thousands of traders and investors to learn to trade shares and become confident and profitable in their direct share investments. Tired of an industry saturated by quick fix gimmicks and expensive short-courses, Dale co-founded Wealth Within to provide ‘ real education and ongoing personalised support’, as well as independent investment advice to traders and investors who have become disillusioned by the market for one reason or another. As testament to this, Wealth Within launched Australia’s first and only nationally accredited Diploma and Advanced Diploma of Share Trading and Investment.For more information please visit www.wealthwithin.com.au

This week Dale Gillham and Janine Cox discussed a number of important topics live online including the volatility observed on Australian and international markets (particularly in Asia) and what’s in store for the year ahead, as well as a forecast for the Aussie dollar which has been inching higher over recent weeks. In this presentation you will also gain an insight into some of the techniques used in their analysis.

If you would like to listen to ”2012- What’s in store for the year ahead” click here.

Listen to Blake Sterling and Dale Gillham in their two part series podcast on how to profit in 2012. With plenty of share market hints and tips, along with trading strategies and most importantly where to look to find stock to invest and trade this year. Simply click the links below to listen.

Trading and Investing Opportunities Part 1

Trading and Investing Opportuities Part 2

Dale Gillham

Chief Analyst, Wealth Within

Dale Gillham, ‘one of the country’s most respected analysts’ (Wealth Creator Magazine, Nov/Dec 2004), sought after key note speaker and author of the best selling book ‘How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%’, has assisted thousands of traders and investors to learn to trade shares and become confident and profitable in their direct share investments. Tired of an industry saturated by quick fix gimmicks and expensive short-courses, Dale co-founded Wealth Within to provide ‘ real education and ongoing personalised support’, as well as independent investment advice to traders and investors who have become disillusioned by the market for one reason or another. As testament to this, Wealth Within launched Australia’s first and only nationally accredited Diploma and Advanced Diploma of Share Trading and Investment.For more information please visit www.wealthwithin.com.au

Listen to this Australian Share Market Report via audio podcast just click Upfront Investor

The story of the News Limited phone hacking scandal took centre stage around the world for a few months in 2011 when governments got on their high horses joining the stampede against News Limited in what may have just been a point scoring exercise to win votes. Now, months later when the legal battles are being settled out of court, and away from the public spotlight, what are our politicians doing?

Unfortunately, very little it seems which only adds weight to the scepticism felt by the public about the motives of government. They often selectively speak out about issues that get attention from the masses but then do little, which leads us to think they were only looking for publicity.

So what message do these out of court settlements send to us? If you ask me, it seems to be one law for big corporations with a lot of money and influence and another for Joe average.

History shows us that whenever there is a crisis, illegal activity will come to the surface and the GFC is another recent example of powerful organisations doing what they please without regard for the general population. Powerful organisations should not be above the law and politicians need to worry more about doing what is right, rather than jumping on bandwagons while attempting to look good.

What do we expect in the market?

This week, buoyed by news that Chinese demand for commodities is likely to remain stable, the Australian share market edged back above 4,300 points. The news in China was followed by a further good report that employment in the US may have stabilised, with world markets reacting positively to both announcements.

You might remember some weeks back how the news was in stark contrast to this, and is evidence of how market sentiment can quickly change. That said, the charts confirm market direction, not news, as they tell us the strength and direction of buying and selling. Right now my analysis still indicates a rise is likely over the next couple of weeks to around 4500 points.

Markets are driven on perception and positive news will typically push markets higher. Given that both the charts and world news are pointing to higher prices, the current rise gives investors some breathing space, and possibly opportunities to start adding to their portfolios again.

That said remember, we are not out of the woods yet as reporting season is just around the corner and this is when big corporations both here and abroad will reveal some home truths.
Visit our Facebook page for links to more detailed discussions on world markets.

Dale Gillham

Chief Analyst, Wealth Within

Dale Gillham, ‘one of the country’s most respected analysts’ (Wealth Creator Magazine, Nov/Dec 2004), sought after key note speaker and author of the best selling book ‘How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%’, has assisted thousands of traders and investors to learn to trade shares and become confident and profitable in their direct share investments. Tired of an industry saturated by quick fix gimmicks and expensive short-courses, Dale co-founded Wealth Within to provide ‘ real education and ongoing personalised support’, as well as independent investment advice to traders and investors who have become disillusioned by the market for one reason or another. As testament to this, Wealth Within launched Australia’s first and only nationally accredited Diploma and Advanced Diploma of Share Trading and Investment.For more information please visit www.wealthwithin.com.au

Listen to this Australian Share Market Report via audio podcast just click Upfront Investor

The GFC has taught investors a valuable lesson about the risks of maintaining the strategy to ‘buy and hold’ equity investments, yet despite large losses the majority would rather continue to practice their ‘hope and pray’ strategy as they wait for a recovery rather than learn how to protect their investments. 

Last year the decline in the share price of some of the big names continued, with investors starting to see how even stocks that are classed as being ‘Blue Chip’ by the financial industry are not awarding any special protection from further declines. This week QBE Insurance Group is one such example.

Australian investors saw red this week when once share market darling, QBE, stunned the market with a massive profit downgrade. Management of QBE indicated the damage to the company bottom line is in the order of 40 to 50 per cent, citing the spate of natural disasters as the cause.

In response, QBE’s share price dropped like a lead sinker after it was released from a trading halt pending the announcement. Although QBE’s share price has recovered somewhat, the initial fall on Thursday represented a decline of around 20 per cent from Wednesday’s closing price of $13.00.

QBE is still a great share to own, just not right now, and there is talk about further acquisitions which seems positive. That said I don’t see how all of this is going to give investors any greater sense of security about QBE, or other blue chips shares for that matter.

What do we expect in the market?

The Australian share market has made some solid gains to start the new year, with the all Ordinaries Index rising well clear of the December low of 4091.6 points, and above the upper band of our previously identified support zone between 4100 and 4200 points. Although this is a positive sign, it’s still too soon to confirm whether the market as a whole will be able to build sufficient momentum to buck the current sideways trend.

From here I am watching to see whether the market will continue to hold above the support zone well into February and unfold in a sustained upward move, as then the probability of a further rise to around 4500 points and above becomes a realistic scenario.

So what does this mean for investors? At this point don’t expect miracles, and it is important to continue to keep an open mind about what the market might do over the coming months as it could just as well be bullish as bearish. One of the biggest mistakes I continually see investors and traders make is to behave like sheep and follow the herd.


Visit our Facebook page for links to more detailed discussions on world markets.

Dale Gillham

Chief Analyst, Wealth Within

Dale Gillham, ‘one of the country’s most respected analysts’ (Wealth Creator Magazine, Nov/Dec 2004), sought after key note speaker and author of the best selling book ‘How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%’, has assisted thousands of traders and investors to learn to trade shares and become confident and profitable in their direct share investments. Tired of an industry saturated by quick fix gimmicks and expensive short-courses, Dale co-founded Wealth Within to provide ‘ real education and ongoing personalised support’, as well as independent investment advice to traders and investors who have become disillusioned by the market for one reason or another. As testament to this, Wealth Within launched Australia’s first and only nationally accredited Diploma and Advanced Diploma of Share Trading and Investment.For more information please visit www.wealthwithin.com.au