Share market scams. Upfront Investor Share Market Wrap 14/9/09

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV-9bTcZuoY

I read with interest an article in the September Choice magazine on option educators and their wealth creation seminars. The article states that options╒ trading is primarily promoted by educators as a ╘high profit low risk╒ strategy to make money in rising and falling share markets. Options educators have been renowned for making promises of the riches you can make trading these highly leverage instruments for decades and the streets are littered with thousands of unsuspecting customers who believed these over inflated and misleading statements and paid the price.

This practice is not just restricted to options trading but also CFDs, foreign exchange trading and horse racing software with the same marketing spin and hard-core sales. Whilst these promoters tell the unsuspecting attendees╒ that returns in the hundreds and even thousands of percent are easily obtainable in a few short months with little or no knowledge, highly qualified options brokers suggest profits of 1.5 per cent per month or even double digit figures in a year, would be a phenomenal return. In reality, the only people getting rich are those who promote these seminars - anyone attending a seminar that promises returns that sound too good to be true should just walk away.

So what can we expect in the market?

Over the past week the market has continued to rise instead of fall as I expected. Right now many investors would be thinking that the market is highly bullish and that the bull-run is likely to go on forever. However, one thing I have learnt about the share market is that it tests your psychology because just when you think the bull-run will continue it stops, catching many unsuspecting investors out.

If we look at the reality of the market, since the high on 15 August the All Ordinaries Index has risen only 1.48 per cent to yesterdays close. However, if we look at Wednesday’s (9 September) close, it has only risen 0.45%. So is the market really bullish? Or is it slowing down and about to turn?

I believe it is the latter as there is at least a 90% probability the market will fall in September for at least two weeks. Therefore, given that we are now nearing the middle of the month, it is likely that the market will start to fall any day. Following this, I expect the market to rise into October to between 4600 and 4950 points, which I believe will be the high for the year, before it falls again in November to below 3800 points.

Only time will tell if I am correct, but as always protect capital by setting stop losses, and do not think you are missing out if you are not buying right now as probability suggests we will get better and safer buying opportunities in the not to distant future.