Bank stocks headed for short term dip SMSFs warned


Published in SMSFAdviser, August 2018 by Miranda Brownlee

While bank stocks will likely face increased turbulence in coming weeks, there is still potential for capital returns for investors in the longer term, says an investment manager.

Wealth Within chief analyst Dale Gillham said while this reporting season has mostly been positive for the financial sector, the royal commission could impact bank stocks over the next few weeks as it continues its probe into superannuation.

Mr Gilham said the results from AMP have already weighed heavily on the sector.

“It’s been a rough road for AMP shareholders and in the short-term, there is still a risk of further downside for the stock price.

A trade below $3.36 would significantly increase the probability of a further fall towards $2.73,” said Mr Gillham.

“That said, in the coming months, AMP may trade towards $4 as the market has largely factored in negative news about company profits and findings from the Royal Commission.

How it behaves in the last quarter of 2018 will shed light on direction in 2019.”

CBA and Suncorp Group, on the other hand, were two of the standout companies, he said, with CBA still reporting a $9,375 million profit despite a $700 million AUSTRAC fine.

“The result was down by around four per cent on last year. Despite the news, the stock rose by around 3.5 per cent this week,” he said.

He predicts that bank stocks will fall in coming weeks, however, as the royal commission probe into superannuation continues and puts banks under the microscope again.

However, plans by the banks to sell their wealth management divisions may “pave the way for a potential capital return to shareholders”, he said.

“Banks will continue to generate multibillion dollar profits and pay dividends at market or above, making the stock attractive to investors,” he said.


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