These ASX Stocks Always Rise After Oil Spikes: Buy Now

Every time oil prices spike toward the US$100-per-barrel mark, a familiar pattern plays out on the ASX. Energy stocks rally, investors scramble for exposure, and those who are positioned early stand to benefit the most. In the latest episode of the Hot Stock Tips show, Wealth Within analyst Filip Tortevski and Senior Analyst Pedro Benales break down three ASX energy stocks with a proven track record of rising when oil surges.

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupting global supply chains, gas infrastructure in Qatar under threat, and governments accelerating their push toward renewables, the current oil spike is creating opportunities across traditional and clean energy plays. The discussion focuses on how investors can use both technical and fundamental analysis to identify the best entry points and manage risk during volatile conditions.

Why Oil Spikes Create ASX Energy Opportunities

When oil prices breach the US$100 mark, it tends to trigger a wave of buying activity across ASX-listed energy producers and explorers. This is because higher oil prices directly improve the revenue outlook for companies with exposure to oil and gas production, and can also accelerate government spending on renewable energy infrastructure as nations look to reduce their reliance on imported fossil fuels.

According to the Wealth Within analysts, the current spike has been driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly the disruption to Qatari gas exports. Qatar is the world’s largest gas exporter, and any threat to its supply chain sends shockwaves through global energy markets. For Australian energy companies, this creates a dual opportunity: increased demand for Australian gas exports and greater urgency around domestic renewable energy investment.

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Stock Spotlight #1: Karoon Energy

Karoon Energy is an oil and gas exploration and production company with assets in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil. It is one of the clearest beneficiaries of rising oil prices on the ASX, with a historically strong correlation between its share price and the oil price.

Filip highlighted three previous periods where oil pushed toward or past US$100 per barrel and noted that Karoon rallied approximately 430% during the first period, 162% during the second, and around 400% from the 2020 low. Each of these moves coincided with a significant spike in the global oil price, demonstrating the stock’s sensitivity to energy market conditions.

On the technical side, Karoon has recently broken out of a sideways consolidation pattern near a key support level established in late 2024. The analysts see a clear path to $2.45–$2.50 in the short term, representing approximately 22% upside from current levels. If Middle East tensions persist and oil remains elevated, a run toward $4.00 is not out of the question, representing a near doubling of the share price.

Fundamentally, Karoon is cashed up, pays a fully franked dividend, and has the flexibility to fund buybacks and new projects. Its assets are located in safe operating jurisdictions away from the conflict zones driving the current oil spike, adding a layer of security for investors.

Pedro noted that volume has been increasing on the weekly chart, supporting the breakout thesis. He cautioned that a short-term pullback to $1.80–$2.20 is possible, but emphasised that this would be a buying opportunity rather than a reason to sell, provided the broader oil price remains supportive.

Stock Spotlight #2: Origin Energy

Origin Energy is a vertically integrated energy company with exposure to both traditional oil and gas and the growing renewable energy sector. Its 27.5% stake in Australia Pacific LNG makes it one of the largest holders of gas assets in the country, positioning it squarely as a beneficiary of disrupted global gas supply.

Pedro explained that the biggest near-term opportunity for Origin lies in the gas market. With Qatari gas exports under threat, Asian buyers including Japan, China, and Singapore are increasingly looking to Australian suppliers. Origin’s substantial gas infrastructure gives it the capacity to step into this gap, potentially driving sustained revenue growth.

On the chart, Origin has been trending upward since its 2021 low, rising approximately 200% over that period. Pedro identified a near-term price target of $14–$15, representing around 20% upside. If the stock breaks cleanly above $15, it enters what the analysts call “blue sky” territory with no historical resistance levels above, meaning significant further upside is possible.

Beyond the oil and gas tailwind, Origin’s investment in renewable energy provides a longer-term growth catalyst. As Australian governments accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, companies with established positions in both traditional and clean energy stand to benefit from capital flows in either direction.

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Stock Spotlight #3: AGL Energy

AGL Energy is one of Australia’s largest energy retailers and generators, and has been repositioning itself as a major player in the renewable energy and battery storage space. The company owns a battery facility in the Gippsland region of Victoria and is developing another in South Australia, both of which are becoming increasingly profitable arms of the business.

Pedro noted that AGL’s share price had been beaten down in recent years due to uncertainty around its heavy capital expenditure on renewable infrastructure. However, the latest earnings report showed that battery storage and energy release have become a highly profitable part of the business. With the ability to store energy and sell it at a premium during periods of high demand, including the “war premium” that comes with geopolitical disruption, AGL’s revenue potential is growing.

Technically, AGL has crossed above the $9.50 level and is holding its position there. Pedro sees the next resistance band at around $11, with a longer-term target of $12.50–$13.00 if the breakout pattern holds. On the monthly chart, the stock has undergone a prolonged sideways consolidation and business restructuring, and now appears to be entering a new upward phase.

Filip reinforced this view by highlighting the strong buying volume that came through around the February earnings announcement. The fact that subsequent selling failed to take out the February support level suggests institutional interest rather than retail speculation, which is a bullish signal for the next leg higher.

AGL also pays a fully franked dividend, making it attractive for long-term portfolios and self-managed super funds. Both analysts agreed that as long as the stock holds above $9.00, the bullish outlook remains intact.

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The Renewable Energy Angle: Why This Oil Spike Is Different

One of the key themes from the discussion was the role of renewable energy in this particular oil spike cycle. Unlike previous surges, which focused solely on traditional fossil fuel producers, the current environment is pushing governments and corporations to accelerate investment in clean energy alternatives.

Filip pointed out that the rising cost of imported fossil fuels is making the case for domestic renewable energy infrastructure more compelling than ever. In Australia, this translates to increased investment in battery storage, solar, and wind projects, all of which benefit companies like Origin Energy and AGL Energy that are already positioned in the space.

This creates what the analysts describe as a “double tailwind” for certain ASX energy stocks: short-term gains from elevated oil and gas prices, and longer-term structural growth from the renewable energy transition. Investors who understand how to identify these dual-catalyst setups can position themselves for returns that extend well beyond the current oil spike.

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Final Thoughts: Positioning for the Energy Opportunity

Oil spikes have historically created some of the most profitable opportunities on the ASX, and the current environment is no different. Karoon Energy offers direct leverage to rising oil prices with a proven track record of rallying during supply disruptions. Origin Energy combines gas exposure with renewable energy growth potential, making it a compelling medium-to-long-term play. And AGL Energy, while still in the early stages of its breakout, presents a unique opportunity as a battery storage and renewable energy leader benefiting from both higher energy prices and the structural shift toward clean power.

The key takeaway from Wealth Within’s analysis is that timing and discipline matter more than ever in volatile energy markets. Knowing when to enter, where to set your stop losses, and how to read the technical signals can be the difference between catching a rally and catching a falling knife.

To explore more expert stock analysis and market insights, visit the Hot Stock Tips videos. If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level with structured, expert-led education, explore Wealth Within’s range of trading courses designed to help Australian investors trade with confidence in any market condition. With over two decades of experience guiding Australians toward financial independence, Wealth Within has a proven track record as Australia’s most trusted share trading educator.