Trump–Iran Ceasefire Cancelled: Buy These ASX Stocks Now

Three ASX stocks are shaping up for explosive moves as US–Iran peace talks collapse and the United States signals a potential block on the Strait of Hormuz. Timing these trades correctly will mean the difference between winning and losing, and in the latest episode of the Hot Stock Tips show, Wealth Within analysts Filip Tortevski and Pedro Benales break down the key price levels and insights investors need to know.

The pattern is now well established: the moment the market senses that war is escalating rather than easing, capital immediately rotates into energy and precious metals. With ceasefire hopes effectively capitulated, oil prices climbing, and global supply chains facing renewed disruption, three ASX-listed names are setting up for potentially major moves. Each of these stocks is sitting at a critical technical level, backed by increasing volume and strong fundamental catalysts that align with the current geopolitical backdrop.

Why the Ceasefire Collapse is a Turning Point for ASX Traders

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important oil transit chokepoint in the world, with roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids passing through it daily. Any block or meaningful disruption sends immediate shockwaves through global energy markets, pushing oil prices higher and redirecting capital into commodity producers. With the US now signalling potential intervention and Iran’s response escalating, the risk-off trade has firmly re-engaged.

For ASX investors, this environment has historically been fertile ground for energy, gold, copper, and gas stocks that are either producing or on the verge of production. The key, as always, is timing such as knowing which levels matter and when to act. For investors wanting to build foundational skills in reading charts and managing entries during high-volatility periods, Wealth Within’s share trading education provides the disciplined, technical framework that separates profitable traders from reactive ones.

Stock Spotlight #1: Firefly Metals

Firefly Metals is a gold and copper exploration and development company working to build a high-grade copper mine. While Australian-listed, its core project is actually located in Canada, giving it strong exposure to allied Western supply chains at a time when the US is actively diversifying away from its dependence on Chinese critical minerals.

The fundamental case is compelling. Gold is trending higher on safe-haven demand, while copper is facing a forecast shortfall of around 30% by 2035, driven by the electrification of everything from EVs to data centres. Firefly also has strong cash reserves to fund its development pipeline, which is crucial for explorers looking to take projects through to the next production milestone.

On the monthly chart, the $2.23–$2.30 level is the critical zone to watch. This is a ceiling the stock has failed to break through multiple times, dating back over a decade: it tested the level in March 2020, and again in August 2020, and each time was immediately rejected. What is different this time is that the approach has been structured rather than a blow-off spike, with the stock respecting a momentum line and showing strong buying through April on the largest volume this stock has ever recorded.

If Firefly can confirm a breakout above $2.30, the upside potential is significant. Filip identified initial targets around the $4.00 IPO level, with longer-term potential extending toward $6.00, which represents close to 100% upside from current levels. The combination of critical mineral tailwinds, rising gold and copper prices, and a textbook technical setup makes this one of the most interesting speculative plays on the ASX right now.

Stock Spotlight #2: Tamboran Resources

Tamboran Resources is attempting to build the Australian equivalent of the US shale gas industry, which was the innovation that propelled America to the forefront of global oil production. By extracting gas trapped in deep rock formations through advanced drilling technology, Tamboran is positioning itself to help address Australia’s domestic gas shortage, which has become particularly acute with disruptions to global supply.

If Tamboran can successfully replicate shale gas production at a commercial scale in Australia, the implications for domestic energy security and pricing at the bowser would be significant. This fundamental story is compelling, but Pedro cautioned that IPO stocks often underperform in their first few years, as Tamboran itself fell 71% from its 2021 listing before finding a bottom near 10 cents and beginning a new uptrend.

The technical setup now looks much more attractive. The stock has broken above the key 24–25 cent resistance level that had capped it on five separate attempts since November 2022, and is now retesting that level as support. This retest presents a potential second-chance opportunity for investors who missed the initial breakout, particularly as the bounce off support is occurring on increasing volume.

Pedro noted that liquidity has also been improving, which is critical for smaller-cap stocks like Tamboran. More participants in the market means tighter spreads and better execution when buying or selling. This is one of many nuanced topics explored in the nationally accredited Diploma of Share Trading and Investment, where students learn how to select and trade stocks across varying liquidity profiles and market caps.

Stock Spotlight #3: Beetaloo Energy Australia

Beetaloo Energy Australia is an execution-focused gas developer working to fast-track production in the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory. The company holds the largest land position in the basin, another shale-focused project that is uncovering increasingly significant gas deposits.

After a prolonged decline, the stock has formed a substantial basing pattern and is now breaking out on the highest volume it has ever recorded. The 24 cent level, which previously acted as strong resistance, has now flipped to become support. Recent price action shows the stock testing this level, bouncing, and moving higher in a sustained trend rather than the jittery spike-and-fade pattern seen in earlier years.

Filip’s analysis points to an immediate short-term target of 41–42 cents, representing around 40% upside from current levels. If the stock can push through that resistance, a move to fill the gap near 73–80 cents becomes likely, with longer-term potential back toward the IPO price around $1.00. The accumulation phase appears complete, volume is sustained, and the macro backdrop of rising gas demand from Asian importers is strongly supportive.

For investors seeking exposure to Australian gas growth, Beetaloo offers a high-conviction yet still speculative play. Pedro cautioned that this is not a position to bet the house on, but as a growth-focused allocation within a balanced portfolio, the combination of land holdings, shale expertise, and a supportive technical setup makes it one to watch closely. Beginners wanting to understand how to size positions and manage risk across speculative stocks should start with Wealth Within’s Stock Market for Beginners guide.

The Common Thread: Critical Levels and Rising Volume

What unites these three stocks is a single powerful technical signal: all three are breaking or approaching critical long-term resistance on the strongest volume they have ever recorded. Volume is the fuel that drives sustained breakouts, and when it appears after a stock has spent years trapped below a key level, it is one of the most reliable confirmations that institutional buyers are finally stepping in.

Equally important is risk management. Each of these setups offers asymmetric upside with significant potential gains if the breakouts confirm, and clearly defined levels where the thesis would be invalidated. That is the kind of structure disciplined traders look for: not certainty, but a favourable risk-to-reward ratio with clear rules for when to act and when to step aside.

For investors wanting to develop the pattern recognition and timing skills demonstrated in this analysis, Wealth Within’s Short Course in Share Trading provides the foundational framework, while the Advanced Stock Trading course covers the professional-level tools, including Elliott Wave analysis, time analysis, and portfolio optimisation.

Final Thoughts: Positioning for the Geopolitical Shift

The collapse of the US–Iran ceasefire has created a rare window of opportunity on the ASX. Firefly Metals offers leveraged exposure to both rising gold prices and the structural copper deficit with a potential 100% move if it breaks $2.30. Tamboran Resources is retesting a multi-year breakout level and is well positioned to benefit from Australia’s domestic gas shortage. And Beetaloo Energy Australia is emerging from a major accumulation phase, with significant upside potential across short, medium, and long-term horizons.

As always, the key to profiting from these opportunities is discipline, clear entry rules, defined stop losses, and a willingness to look past short-term noise. To explore more expert stock analysis and market insights, visit the Hot Stock Tips videos streamed live every Tuesday evening. With over two decades of experience guiding Australians toward financial independence, Wealth Within showcases the company’s mission and track record as Australia’s most trusted share trading educator, ready to help you trade with confidence through any market condition.