Global Tension Fails to Halt All Ordinaries Index
By Janine Cox | Published 23 September 2019
The US China trade war, Saudi oil crisis and low interest rates have all heightened global uncertainty. If you also include the uncertainty surrounding the impending 2020 US election, you would think this is a recipe for world markets not to perform very well. Yet these global tensions have failed to halt the All Ordinaries Index, as well as other world markets.
Performance of the All Ordinaries Index
While the momentum on the All Ordinaries Index has slowed, it has risen over 5 per cent in the last five weeks with the charge led by the Financials sector last week and the Energy and Utilities sectors this week.
Stocks in the Financial, Material and Healthcare sectors continue to shine, as they have been rising steadily over the past couple of months. I believe these sectors, in particular, will present great opportunities to buy good quality stocks in the coming months. That said, while Healthcare has performed reasonably well this year, Financials and Materials have are due to play catch up with the rest of the market.
The Energy sector, on the other hand, has been a volatile this week following the drone attacks on the Saudi oil facilities, which knocked out half of the countries production. The flow on effect saw crude oil prices rise sharply reaching over US $63 a barrel at the beginning of the week before falling back to around $58. Unfortunately, these attacks have been going on for quite some time, and as a result, tensions in the Middle East are high.
For those who may be concerned about oil prices rising further or even a potential oil crisis, you needn’t be as half of the production that was lost has already been restored. Saudi oil executives are also expecting production to be back to normal and fully restored by the end of the month.
Top performing sectors and stocks
The best sectors this week include Energy up around 3 per cent followed by Utilities up 1.43 per cent, while the worst performing sectors were Consumer Discretionary and Financials, which were both just in the green.
As for the top performing stocks this week, it’s no surprise to see that Newcrest, Oil Search and Santos did well. After rising strongly earlier in the week, the stocks eased off later in the week, although all were up over 4 per cent. At the other end of the scale, Ramsey was down over 5 per cent early in the week after a major shareholder, Ramsey Foundation, sold a large holding of shares to institutions at a heavy discount to the current share price.
What's next in the Australian stock market?
After rising over 4 per cent over the past three weeks, momentum has slowed, as it has only risen 1 per cent in the last two weeks, which is a sign that the pull back into the low I have been expecting may be starting sometime. My expectation is that the All Ordinaries Index will fall below 6,400 points, possibly as low as 6,200 points in the next month.
If this occurs, stay clam because as I have stressed in the past, this is normal market behaviour and nothing to be concerned about. As for the medium to long term, I am still expecting the market to be bullish into 2020 and beyond. Therefore, once the low has occurred, I expect the market to rise with the potential for it make a new all-time high before the end of the year. believe the run up to the end of the year will be very good.
So let’s get into this week’s stocks of interest. Watch the video to find out more.
Good luck and good trading.
Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also author of the award winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available online and at all good book stores.