Telstra’s Share Price Plummets: When Will it Recover?

Telstra recently made headlines by announcing significant job cuts of up to 2,800 positions as part of cost-saving measures. This decision resulted in one of the largest weekly declines in its share price since 2020 and raised questions about whether this presents an opportunity to acquire a 'blue-chip stock at a discount' or if it signals underlying issues within one of Australia's major market players.

Is there any upside to Telstra’s share price in making these job cuts?

Admittedly, layoffs are rarely a positive sign for a company, and Telstra's move is estimated to cost between $200 million and $250 million. However, there's a silver lining: by making these changes, the company anticipates saving $350 million by the end of the 2025 financial year, resulting in a net positive scenario of $100 million.

If these cost savings are effectively reinvested to foster growth and innovation, this will potentially boost the share price. If this occurs, then Telstra might become an appealing investment option. One thing of note is that Telstra's core mobile business continues to perform strongly, with the company projecting a pre-tax, pre-interest profit of $8.4-8.7 billion for the 2025 financial year.

Turning to the share price, Telstra is currently trading around $3.40. What's noteworthy is its historical resilience at these price levels: despite its 27-year tenure on the ASX, it has only dipped below $3.40 on three occasions, each time rebounding strongly, with gains of at least 17 per cent, and even surpassing 90 per cent in 2015.

So, if Telstra has played its cards right, albeit at the cost of an unpopular decision, then perhaps we're witnessing a 'blue-chip stock at a discount' right now. However, I would exercise caution and wait for signs of upward price momentum to confirm a new uptrend before you consider it a buying opportunity.

What were the best and worst-performing sectors last week?

The best-performing sectors included Information Technology, up 2.80 per cent, followed by Utilities, up 2.34 per cent, and Energy, up 1.23 per cent. The worst-performing sectors included Consumer Discretionary, down 4.34 per cent, followed by Communication Services, down 3.71 per cent, and Real Estate, down 2.47 per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 included Technology One, up 12.18 per cent, followed by Xero Ltd, up 8.41 per cent and A2Milk up 5.64 per cent. The worst-performing stocks included James Hardie Industries, down 13.81 per cent, followed by Liontown Resources, down 8.36 per cent and Sonic Healthcare, down 7.32 per cent.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

As the All-Ordinaries index failed to achieve a new all-time high last week, it raises the question: Have buyers exhausted their immediate efforts and, in doing so, paved the way for sellers to take charge, or are they just taking a breather?

The All-Ordinaries index closed down last week over one per cent, and prices have remained within the range set by the previous week. This indicates that the market is in a phase of at least short-term accumulation. Such periods typically precede significant price movements in either direction, adding intrigue to the market's next move.

So, with a strong directional move either up or down on the horizon, there's a real possibility that our market may trend downwards. This is supported by the historical seasonal trend of market declines in June, and the market’s inability to surpass the previous all-time high certainly adds fuel to this. That said, given the market's resilience this year, a significant price fall on the All-ordinaries index in June seems less likely.

A more probable scenario is for the market to reach its major yearly low between September and November. Therefore, there's still considerable room for market growth before any serious decline. Nonetheless, if June follows its historical downturn, I'll closely monitor the 7,800 level, which has been a strong buyer support level since February. If prices breach 7,800, the potential support around 7,500 becomes pivotal.

As we are presented with two opposing potential scenarios on our market and a short window regarding market turning points, I cannot stress enough the importance of having an exit strategy in place for the stocks you are trading.

Waiting for the market to plummet before considering selling will be too late, potentially undoing all of the nice gains the market has provided this year so far. For now, it is time to wait and see what the next move holds.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online.