Want to Win Big this Reporting Season? Don’t Listen to the Experts
By Dale Gillham and Fil Tortevski
ASX reporting season is here, and once again, most investors are going to get it wrong. Not because they’re not smart. But because they’re playing the wrong game.
While the headlines are obsessing over beating or missing earnings guidance, the real professionals are watching something else entirely: the chart. Let’s be blunt, the numbers don’t move the market, expectations do.
Just look at what happened to stocks last season. Solid results yet share prices tanked. Missed expectations and prices rallied. That’s not a bug, it’s the system.
So, if you’re still thinking this is about spreadsheets and profit margins, you’re not investing, you’re speculating.
Why do retail investors keep getting burned?
It’s the same trap every year. They wait for the result and listen to the CEO spin. They hang on analyst commentary and by the time they act, the move’s already over.
People in the know don’t wait for the announcements, they trade what’s in the charts. So, if a stock runs up before the announcement, chances are good results are already factored in. If it sells off on a bad result, the worst might already be behind it.
And if you don’t know how to read the chart, you’ll never know the difference. For over 20 years, I have been teaching traders to focus on the one thing that never lies: price. So, if you want to make money this earnings season, here are my top 3 rules: Ignore the noise, watch the trend, trade the reaction, not the release
Reporting season isn’t about who reports the best, it’s about who surprises the most. You don’t need a finance degree to win. You just need to know how to read what the market is already telling you. So, before you dive into the next stock tip or earnings preview, ask yourself: Is the price telling you to act, or are you just hoping it will?
What were the best and worst-performing sectors last week?
he best-performing sectors included Energy, up 3.94 per cent followed by Healthcare, up 2.09 per cent and Materials, up 2.04 per cent. The worst performing sectors included Financials, down 3.87 per cent followed by Consumer Discretionary, down 2.01 per cent and Communication Services, down 1.56 per cent.
The best performing stocks in the ASX tops 100 included Whitehaven Coal, up 12.64 per cent followed by Pilbara Minerals, up 12.57 per cent and Mineral Resources, up 11.14 per cent. The worst-performing stocks included Telix Pharmaceuticals, down 15.87 per cent followed by Macquarie Group, down 5.82 per cent and Challenger Limited, down 5.26 per cent.
What's next for the Australian stock market?
The All-Ordinaries Index pushed into record territory again last week, notching a fresh all-time high. However, some profit-taking emerged on Thursday and Friday, closing the index down slightly under one per cent. Still, a bit of selling at these levels is no surprise. The real focus now is on how far this rally can go.
This week’s charge was led by a strong surge in the energy sector, with materials stocks close behind. With these heavyweight sectors firing, the index now has its eyes set on the 9,200 level as the next major milestone.
But markets don’t move in straight lines. The shallow pullback in June suggests another pause may be near, which is a normal part of a healthy uptrend, especially at new highs.
The only real drag was financials, which underperformed. But if investors rotate back into banks while miners stay hot, we could see the rally accelerate.
Adding to the case for further acceleration is earnings season, now in full swing, bringing both volatility and opportunity. Strong results from the big miners have already added fuel to the fire, and with sentiment shifting from fear to cautious optimism, even small beats are triggering outsized moves.
This is classic bull market behaviour and it rewards those who are prepared and decisive. Whether you're trading short-term or building long-term positions, this is a trend worth staying alert for.
For now, good luck and good trading.
Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online.
