Is Australia Sleepwalking into Its Own Subprime Crisis?

The government has just handed first home buyers what looks like a golden ticket, but it could be the fuse for a ticking time bomb.

From October, the 5 per cent deposit scheme expands with no income cap, no cap on spots, and lifted property price limits. In Sydney, the ceiling rockets from $900,000 to $1.5 million while Melbourne jumps to $950,000, Brisbane to $1 million, with similar leaps nationwide. On paper, it’s about helping Aussies into homes, but in practice, it could be laying the foundation for Australia’s own version of the American subprime meltdown.

Why this looks like the 2008 subprime crisis all over again

Let’s be clear, when buyers can borrow up to $1.5 million with just a tiny 5 per cent deposit backed by taxpayers, it’s not a housing dream, it’s a debt trap dressed as policy.

And the timing couldn’t be worse. Inflation ticked back up to 2.8 per cent in July, at the very top of the RBA’s range. That’s not “mission accomplished”, it’s a warning light flashing red. At the same time, our so called “strong” jobs market is skewed. Employment growth is being propped up by government public sector hires, not private companies investing in expansion. Strip that away and the job numbers suddenly look a lot less impressive.

Add in record immigration, and you’ve got an economy kept alive by artificial stimulants, not sustainable growth. When the property market relies on government lifelines and immigration surges, it’s not strong, it’s on life support.

The perfect storm

Now picture this: inflation creeps higher, the RBA doesn’t cut rates or worse, is forced to raise them again. At the same time, job cuts like CSL’s 3,000 layoffs ripple through the economy. Households who maxed out borrowing under this scheme suddenly face repayments they can’t afford. That’s exactly how the subprime dominoes fell in the U.S., and we’d be fools to think it can’t happen here.

What should homebuyers do?

If you’re going to take advantage of this scheme, don’t treat it like a once in a lifetime sale. This is your first rung on the ladder, not the dream home that bleeds you dry. Buy conservatively, leave a buffer, and avoid maxing out your borrowing.

History is clear: in every bubble, it’s the overleveraged who get crushed first. Don’t be one of them. This isn’t the season for FOMO, it’s the season for caution.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up over two per cent, followed by Real Estate, up over one per cent and Energy, up under half a per cent. The worst performing sectors include Information technology and Communication Services, both down over two per cent, followed by Consumer Staples, down over one and a half per cent.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include IDP Education Limited, up over 26 per cent, followed by Coles Group, up over 15 per cent and Worley Limited, up over 13 per cent. The worst-performing stocks include Reece Limited, down over 22 per cent, followed by Telix Pharmaceuticals, down over 18 per cent and Woolworths Group, down over 14 per cent.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

This week, the All Ordinaries Index briefly touched a fresh all-time high at 9,322 points, but couldn’t hold the gains, ending Thursday and the week so far only slightly above flat. Given how harsh reporting season has been, some of the ASX’s biggest names have suffered double-digit one-day falls, so the fact that the index hasn’t tanked is a positive sign. Still, what’s clear is that the market has little patience for uncertainty.

Technically, the long-term bull trend remains intact. But with the week closing near where it opened, price action is signalling hesitation. The pattern has all the hallmarks of a market pausing at the top, with a potential reversal on the horizon as early as next week.

If selling pressure emerges, the first level of support sits at 9,000, followed by 8,800. A pullback to 8,800 would represent a modest 4 per cent drop, which is well within normal bounds. Even a deeper dip toward 8,600 is around a 7 per cent drop, which would still be considered typical market behaviour. If it does turn to fall, expect some short-lived bounces as bargain hunters jump in before sellers reassert themselves and the correction runs its course.

Stepping back, the long-term outlook remains bullish. Any pullback is more like a healthy reset than the end of the rally. Historically, September and October are more bearish before momentum tends to pick up again into November and December. That seasonal pattern aligns perfectly with current price action.

In other words, there’s no need for alarm, just ride out the volatility. The next rise will bring no shortage of opportunities, with plenty of sidelined cash ready to re-enter the market.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores.