Stagflation is Back: Here's How Investors Can Still Win
By Dale Gillham
Stagflation is every investor's nightmare. Growth slows, consumers cut spending, unemployment rises, yet prices remain stubbornly high. Normally, when economies weaken, inflation falls, but in a stagflation environment, both problems occur simultaneously.
While Australia isn’t facing a full-blown 1970s-style stagflation crisis, the warning signs are becoming harder to ignore. Inflation remains above the RBA's target range, unemployment has climbed to 4.4 per cent, productivity growth is weak and economic growth continues to slow under the weight of higher interest rates.
Why stagflation is challenging
For many Australians, it feels like the worst of both worlds. Wage growth is struggling to keep pace with living costs, households are tightening their belts, and businesses are battling rising expenses, but investors should remember one important lesson from history: even in difficult economic environments, some sectors thrive.
During the stagflation era of the 1970s, many of the market's biggest winners were not the exciting growth stocks of the day. Instead, investors flocked to businesses that controlled essential resources, produced energy, supplied critical infrastructure or sold products people simply could not live without. That same playbook may be worth considering today.
What stocks hold up during stagflation
While giants like BHP and Rio Tinto remain popular choices, paying close attention to companies such as Lynas Rare Earths, Genesis Minerals, Paladin Energy, IGO and APA Group could be where future growth lies.
The common thread is simple. These businesses are tied to commodities, energy security, infrastructure and essential services. Many possess something incredibly valuable during periods of economic stress: pricing power. When costs rise, they often pass those increases on to customers rather than absorb the pain themselves.
Finding the strongest businesses during stagflation
That is why the goal in a stagflation environment is not necessarily to find the cheapest stocks; it is to find the strongest businesses. Look for companies with robust cash flow, manageable debt, reliable dividends, dominant market positions and products that remain in demand regardless of economic conditions.
Stagflation can be brutal for weak businesses, but for investors willing to adapt, it can also create some of the biggest opportunities of the cycle. The winners of the next bull market may not be the same companies that dominated the last one. In fact, if stagflation continues to gain a foothold, the biggest profits could come from owning the businesses that keep the economy running even as everything else slows.
What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?
The best-performing sectors include Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare, both up over 3 per cent, followed by Consumer Staples, up over 2 per cent. The worst-performing sectors include Materials and Energy, both down over 4 per cent, followed by Information Technology, down over 3 per cent.
The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include ResMed Inc., up over 9 per cent, followed by Ramsay Healthcare and Telix Pharmaceuticals, both up over 8 per cent. The worst-performing stocks include WiseTech Global, down over 14 per cent, followed by Greatland Resources, down over 12 per cent and Genesis Minerals, down over 10 per cent.
What's next for the Australian stock market?
The All Ordinaries Index continued its recent pullback this week, finishing down 1 per cent by Thursday's close. While the decline itself was relatively modest, it reinforces the view that the market remains firmly range-bound between 8,800 and 9,200 points. Until buyers or sellers decisively break this range, it is difficult to build a strong case for the next major directional move.
Despite lower oil prices providing some relief, weakness in the Materials and Energy sectors weighed heavily on the broader market. Given that these sectors have done much of the heavy lifting over the past year, a period of consolidation should not come as a surprise. What is more interesting, however, is where investor capital appears to be flowing.
Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples have begun to attract increased attention as investors seek more defensive opportunities and earnings stability. It serves as an important reminder that the headline index only tells part of the story. While the All Ords may appear stuck in neutral, several sectors are quietly carving out their own trends beneath the surface.
In many respects, there are markets within markets. While some areas continue to struggle, others are steadily building momentum despite the broader index moving sideways.
From a broader perspective, Australia's share market has been somewhat underwhelming over the past year, particularly when compared to the technology-driven gains seen overseas. Yet every technological revolution still relies on real-world inputs. Critical minerals, energy resources, infrastructure and industrial materials remain the foundation upon which tomorrow's technologies are built.
At some point, investor attention is likely to return to the companies producing those essential resources. When it does, Australia's market could once again find itself in the global spotlight. Until then, patience, discipline and careful stock selection remain critical. The index may be moving sideways, but opportunities continue to emerge for investors willing to look beneath the surface.
Good luck and good trading.
Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online.
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