This Metal Is the Best ASX Buy in 2026 and It's Still Cheap

What if there was one metal with so much future demand over the next decade that even in the best-case scenario, the world would only be able to meet around 70% of what is required? That metal is copper, and the supply-demand imbalance unfolding right now is creating one of the most compelling investment opportunities on the ASX.

Huge demand, short supply, and still-affordable share prices in many corners of the sector. This is the kind of recipe that has historically created fortunes for well-positioned investors.

In the latest episode of the Australian Stock Market Show, Wealth Within's Chief Analyst Dale Gillham, senior analysts Janine Cox, and Filip Tortevski break down the copper opportunity and reveal the handpicked ASX stocks that deserve a place on every investor's radar.

Why Copper Could Be the Most Important Commodity of the Next Decade

According to Reuters, global copper demand is expected to rise from 28 million tonnes today to 42 million tonnes by 2040, driven by the rapid expansion of AI data centres, electrification, defence spending, and robotics.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency has warned that existing and planned mines may only satisfy around 70% of projected copper demand by 2035. Some forecasts even suggest the world could face a copper shortfall of up to 10 million tonnes annually by 2040 if new mines aren't developed quickly enough.

The key evidence supporting this thesis is striking. Demand forecasts keep rising while new mine discoveries continue to fall, creating a structural supply gap that the industry simply cannot fill quickly enough. This is exactly the kind of imbalance that drives sustained commodity price appreciation, and by extension, share price re-ratings for well-positioned producers and developers.

Producers vs Developers: Where the Real Opportunity Lies

When approaching the copper sector, it pays to understand the difference between producer and developer companies. Producers are generally the safer play, already generating cash flow and benefiting incrementally from higher commodity prices. Developers, on the other hand, offer significantly larger upside potential. They are factoring in project economics based on assumed copper prices, so when copper prices rise, that's where re-ratings and major share price appreciation occur.

It's also worth keeping a close eye on takeover activity, particularly among the smaller copper names. As supply pressure builds, larger players will look to acquire quality assets, which can deliver substantial premiums to existing shareholders.

1. Firefly Metals (ASX: FFM)

Firefly Metals is a developer/explorer that looks to be setting up for a strong move higher. The stock has already worked through significant historical resistance and is now finding support, which suggests it could be poised to push toward the $4 mark and potentially beyond.

Looking at the bigger picture on the weekly chart, the dynamics of this stock have completely changed since January 2024. Volumes are now at the highest levels in the stock's entire history, and rising as the stock expands. Importantly, recent consolidation rather than the historical pattern of pulling back suggests the stock may be setting up for its next leg higher.

The key caveat is that if Firefly falls below the May 2026 low, give it a wide berth and wait for further confirmation.

2. Coda Minerals (ASX: COD)

Coda Minerals is another developer with price action similar to Firefly, although it sits a fair way behind in terms of liquidity. With this kind of stock, zooming out and using the monthly chart will be your friend, rather than trying to catch every move on a 14-cent stock.

Volume has picked up nicely in 2025, which is a positive sign. From December 2024 through July 2026, this is the first time Coda has trended consistently higher for over a year and a half, ever. That kind of structural change in price behaviour means something.

The current test is around 20 cents, with sellers having come through. A clean break above 20 cents opens the door to the 30 to 40 cent region. Calmer, cleaner price action is what investors want to see when stocks emerge from major lows, and Coda is starting to display exactly that.

3. Hot Chili Limited (ASX: HCH)

Hot Chili Limited has been on the radar for many investors, and some have been burned by it in the past. However, the way the chart is set up right now looks particularly attractive. The stock has now tested its lows four times and appears poised to break out.

What makes this setup especially interesting is the trend's angle. Rather than the vertical, unsustainable moves seen earlier in its history, HCH is now building higher in a more measured fashion, a pattern that often precedes more durable breakouts. Investors who missed earlier entries may want to wait for confirmed strength above resistance before entering.

4. Aeris Resources Limited (ASX: AIS)

Aeris Resources is showing meaningful resistance around $0.60 cents, and the safer approach would be to wait for a confirmed break above this zone. There may be an opportunity for higher-risk traders to enter earlier, but a more conservative entry will likely come once price clears resistance and confirms the next leg up.

While not yet ready for a buy signal today, AIS is shaping up as a closer-term opportunity worth keeping on the watchlist.

5. 29Metals Limited (ASX: 29M)

29Metals is now firmly in producer territory, which translates to more stable price action compared to the explorers and developers. The chart structure here is fascinating. The stock has tested 20 to 21 cents three times, and volume on the most recent move is increasing dramatically.

If 29M can reverse higher and break the 43 to 44 cent highs, it may be preparing for its next major leg up. A more conservative approach would be to wait for a confirmed move above 60 cents, which would represent a significantly safer entry with strong continuation potential.

6. Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR)

Sandfire Resources is the largest pure-play copper exposure on the ASX, but it has already risen more than 100% from prior highs, and recent price action shows it getting shy around the $20 mark. While it's tested recent lows twice, it hasn't shot out of the blocks yet.

For investors wanting safer exposure to copper through a major producer, Sandfire still has merit. However, given the size of the recent run, further consolidation may be required before the next sustained move higher.

The Trending Topic: Why Young Australians Need to Be Careful

Research from Vanguard shows that young Australians under 45 are the fastest-growing segment of investors on the Vanguard Australia platform, with 61% saying financial independence is a key driver of their investment decisions.

The biggest barriers, however, are not ambition or money. They are a lack of confidence, a lack of knowledge and education, and a lack of accessibility. Making investments easier to access improves accessibility, but it does nothing to address the lack of education that is essential for managing risk.

This matters because more young Australians are concentrating their investments in two areas: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and cryptocurrency. ETFs like Vanguard's international shares product have existed only in a bull market environment since 2015, meaning many investors have no first-hand experience of major declines. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has historically experienced 70-80% drawdowns multiple times.

The double-whammy risk for young investors is buying at the top of both the property market and the ETF or crypto market, only to suffer simultaneous declines in both. The best defence against this is the same as for any investor: build the knowledge, learn how markets actually move, and develop the skills to manage risk confidently.

Reader Questions: What the Charts Are Telling Us

Nanosonics (ASX: NAN)

A reader bought Nanosonics at $3.69 with a stop loss at $3.00, citing strong fundamentals and analyst price targets ranging from $4.30 to $5.00. Unfortunately, the stock crashed to $3.09 before bouncing.

The lesson here is critical. The story, the cash position, and the analyst targets may all turn out to be correct over the long term, but if your timing is wrong, you simply won't be in the trade to benefit. Technically, there was no buy signal at the entry point. The stock was falling at the time of purchase, and a simple monitor of the move would have indicated it wasn't ready to go higher. This is exactly why the when of trading matters as much as the what.

Resolution Minerals (ASX: RML)

A reader asked for thoughts on RML without providing context. The chart tells a concerning story. After running up sharply in 2025, the stock fell roughly 70% over a few months and has since struggled to break through nine cents. Volume has dropped off, and the stock is sitting precariously around five cents.

If RML breaks through its recent high, the story changes. But if it falls from current lows, it could easily drift back to three cents. With low-liquidity stocks like this, the balance shifts daily and requires close monitoring.

Block Inc (ASX: XYZ)

A reader described their plan to enter Block (formerly Square) in the medium term, targeting $127 with a 15% stop loss, while expressing concern about the choppy monthly chart.

The structure here actually looks quite favourable. The stock has been operating within a defined range, recently bouncing off the lower end around $74-$84, and breaking through long-term momentum. The $127 target is a sensible, range-based objective, and the 15% stop is a reasonable risk parameter. A solid, well-thought-out plan.

Hot Stock Tip: Challenger Exploration Limited

The hot stock tip this week is Challenger Exploration Limited (ASX: CEL), which has just delivered its first-ever gold pour from the Julien project, marking the company's transition from explorer to producer and generating its first-ever operating cash flow.

This is the kind of milestone that mining investors wait years for. Successful commissioning and stronger-than-expected recovery rates significantly reduce project risk and strengthen the balance sheet. The focus now shifts from "can they produce gold?" to "how much profit can they make producing it?"

Technically, Challenger had been consolidating, almost as if waiting for a catalyst. With this news now confirmed, there's no reason the stock can't push back to the 30 to 34 cent levels seen previously. The May low becomes the key marker. As long as Challenger holds above it, the stock is set for a strong run. Volume has also shifted dramatically, suggesting the big end of town may be quietly accumulating ahead of the next major leg higher.

The Real Lesson: Education Is Your Greatest Asset

Whether you're investing in copper stocks, ETFs, gold producers, or anything else, the same fundamental truth applies: your edge comes from your ability to read price, manage risk, and time your entries and exits effectively. Stories and analyst targets are useful, but they don't put money in your pocket without the skills to execute properly.

This is exactly what we teach at Wealth Within. Our share trading education is designed to give you the structure, strategies, and confidence to navigate any market condition with certainty.

If you're new to the markets and want to build solid foundations, the Short Course in Share Trading is the ideal starting point. For those ready to commit to a comprehensive, government-accredited program, the Diploma of Share Trading and Investment teaches a proven five-step approach to becoming a consistently profitable trader. And for graduates looking to take their skills to the next level, our Advanced stock trading course introduces sophisticated techniques such as time analysis and Elliott Wave to further refine your edge.

Final Thoughts

Copper presents one of the most compelling structural opportunities on the ASX over the coming decade. With demand surging from AI, electrification, defence, and robotics, and supply struggling to keep up, the stage is set for substantial price appreciation across well-positioned producers and developers.

Firefly Metals stands out as the favourite pick of our analysts, with its established trend, expanding volume, and clean consolidation pattern setting it up for a potential next leg higher. Hot Chili and Coda Minerals also offer attractive setups, while 29Metals and Aeris Resources warrant patience for confirmation. Sandfire remains the safer large-cap exposure for those preferring a major producer.

As always, the key is not just identifying the right stocks, but knowing when to act and when to step aside. With the right education and a structured approach, you can position yourself to take advantage of moves like these with far greater certainty than the average investor.

Disclaimer: This article is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.