ASX Reporting Season is Days Away: The Stocks and Sectors to Watch

The ASX is about to be shaken up. The reporting season begins in August, and while consensus forecasts have been floated, the real question is whether the market has fully priced in what is about to be delivered. With the oil price swinging wildly, inflation metrics shifting, and interest rate decisions changing on a dime, this reporting season could be one of the most consequential in recent memory.

In the latest episode of the Australian Stock Market Show, Senior Analysts Filip Tortevski and Janine Cox were joined by Analyst Pedro Banales to discuss which sectors are poised to lead, which are set to lag, and the individual stocks that could deliver the biggest surprises when results begin rolling out. To learn more about our team, our accreditation, and our two decade track record of results, visit about Wealth Within.

What Investors Should Expect This Reporting Season

According to UBS, the ASX 200 is expected to deliver its strongest earnings growth in four years, led by a rebound in miners. However, banks are being flagged as facing tougher conditions and may underperform. Consensus forecasts point to 12% earnings per share growth overall, but strip out resources and financials, and that number drops to just 2.5%.

That is not surprising when you consider that financials and materials collectively make up around 58% of the Australian market. If one sector is expected to do well and the other is expected to lag, they largely offset each other. This leaves the door open for other sectors to shine, particularly industrials and utilities, where the key question will be how well companies have passed on rising costs to consumers.

Reporting season always produces surprises, which is exactly why it is such an important window for active investors. Short term profit takers can enjoy the volatility, while those with a longer view can identify quality companies being mispriced by the market. AI is another key theme, with the rollout across large corporations likely to reveal genuine efficiency gains, although the rising cost of data storage is now emerging as an offsetting concern.

Consumer facing companies remain under pressure, with households feeling stretched by interest rate concerns. Healthcare is another sector worth watching closely because it has been sold down so heavily that any positive surprise could trigger a meaningful rebound.

The Materials Sector: Still Room to Run

Looking at the monthly and weekly charts of the materials sector, the big picture story is compelling. Since the 2001 low, materials had a spectacular run into the GFC, followed by a long term bearish move down to the 2016 low. From there, the mining boom drove a long term bullish outlook, with a period of indecision starting around 2020.

Right now it looks like we have a continuation of that overall long term trend. The sector appears to range between 22,000 and the all time high near 26,000. As long as it holds above 22,000, and particularly if it breaks above 25,000 to 26,000, materials could deliver another strong leg up, similar to the sideways consolidation we saw in 2019 before the next move higher.

The Financial Sector: The Potential Wildcard

The financial sector tells a similar big picture story with one important difference. After running to the GFC high, financials traded sideways for roughly a decade. You would not have wanted to be a passive holder during that period, although active traders could have extracted returns from individual stocks within the sector.

Now, financials look to be resuming their long term move, with the momentum well established from the GFC low. As long as the sector holds around its current momentum level, financials could be the real wildcard this reporting season. If banks report better than the market fears, we could see a genuine flight to safety back into the sector.

Retailers: Priced for Bad News?

The retail sector has been battered over the past six months, and this is often where the biggest surprises occur. When negativity is already priced in, even in line results can spark a strong rebound.

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

JB Hi-Fi has been heavily sold down, and when sectors or stocks fall 40 to 50%, that is often where they begin moving back up. The angle of momentum has flattened considerably compared to its recent trend. There is potential for a short term rise and short term gains, with the stock potentially heading back towards $100 if it clears its early July high. As a well established brand, the fundamental story remains intact.

Harvey Norman (HVN)

Harvey Norman has come back into a very significant historical price range, with support levels stretching back to 2001, 2007, and the post GFC recovery. These are well established levels, and after making a new all time high and pulling back to this same important support zone, an interesting opportunity is setting up. Any move back below the current low would be a signal to sit and wait, but the shorter term trend suggests the stock is trying to make a move.

Rate Decision Ahead: Where Money Is Rotating

The RBA rate decision is just around the corner, with Finder's latest survey showing 55% of economists predicting a rate rise. The likely next move is a rise of 0.25%, sooner rather than later.

But the real opportunity is not in predicting the RBA's decision, it is in identifying where institutional money is flowing. Successful investors watch sector rotation. Initially, banks benefit from a rate hike, but if borrowers are squeezed too far, property prices fall. 

Property, consumer discretionary, and technology sectors, particularly companies carrying high debt, tend to be the biggest losers. Healthcare and utilities often benefit, and money rotates to miners where Australian rates have less direct impact on earnings.

The relative rotation graph is showing several sectors currently lagging that could turn up and become tomorrow's leaders. Healthcare and consumer discretionary sit in the lagging quadrant, while consumer staples are moving into improving. Energy has already been moving, with rises across energy related stocks, although this hinges heavily on the oil price. Financials are pulling back but starting to turn, and insurance stocks have been running strongly as the market factors in the potential rate rise benefits.

Top Stock Picks for Reporting Season

South32 (S32)

South32 has been consolidating sideways since January 2026, and this is fundamentally a copper story. Copper demand shows no signs of slowing, and if the reporting season delivers a positive catalyst, we could see a break above $5 with the stock heading towards its high. A move of 15 to 30% is possible, with 20% taking it through to a new all time high. As long as it holds above $4, the sideways move could still resolve to the upside.

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

Aurelia Metals is another copper related play that has been setting up beautifully. There is significant resistance around the 34 to 35 cent mark, and a break above those levels could see the stock take off. If Aurelia surprises to the upside in reporting season, a 15 to 30% move is realistic, potentially heading up towards 50 cents.

Alcoa Corp (AAI)

Alcoa is currently in a falling knife scenario, but there is a method to the madness. This aluminium play is benefiting from Middle East supply disruptions and strong underlying demand. Last quarter, Alcoa beat guidance and was profitable, so the recent share price weakness is at odds with fundamentals. 

The stock is approaching a key value zone between $61 and $53, which represents both historical support and previous resistance. The fall from November 2024 to April 2025 was 50%, and the current fall is at 47%, suggesting a turnaround is close. Suitable as a short to medium term trade with confirmation required for a longer term position.

Greatland Resources (GGP)

Greatland Resources sits in the gold and copper space and reported record revenue in its last quarter. The stock has been surprisingly weak given the strong fundamentals. A value zone has been identified around $7.80, which was the IPO high in June 2025, with additional support levels from March 2026 and resistance from October 2025. 

Each successive low has been higher, so as long as the $9 low holds, the setup remains constructive. A break of the all time high near $15 would be very positive, but ideally investors want to be positioned before that move occurs.

Hot Stock Tip: IGO Limited (IGO)

IGO Limited recently released a quarterly report showing an 18% lift in revenue to $141 million and a stronger cash position, driven by higher copper sales and solid performance from Greenbushes. While results were broadly positive, the Kwinana lithium refinery remains a drag with production well below capacity.

Interestingly, many investors think of IGO as a lithium play, but it is the copper business doing the heavy lifting. The chart looks very compelling. IGO has broken through significant congestion between $6.30 and $2.40 and is holding up nicely above it. The stock is respecting the $6.40 level, which has been an important resistance turned support level dating back to November 2025 and March 2026. With the full year report ahead, IGO is one to keep on the radar.

Viewer Questions Answered

Tamboran Resources (TBN): Long Term Prospects After the Pullback

Alex writes: "Wondering what you think of Tamboran Resources' long term prospects. I bought in at 20 cents on January 26 on a short to medium term growth strategy. Do you think it will resume its long term uptrend after this pullback, or should I have sold at the high in April?"

The first point to make is that there is a contradiction in the question itself, short to medium term buying and long term holding require different analysis and different rules. Getting clear on your timeframe is essential.

That said, the setup on the chart was strong, with double bottoms confirming support and a clean consolidation before the breakout. The stock has now come back to the angle of its trend, which is normal for lower liquidity resource stocks that tend to break out sharply and retest their base. 

Alex's entry point was actually a good one. The key now is to set a stop loss you are comfortable with, because you cannot assume the July low will hold. If it can reclaim the 27 cent high, the trend can continue.

Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT): Is a Recovery Possible?

Tharinda writes: "Can you please review Botanix Pharmaceuticals? I bought some shares last year at higher prices, and it came down a lot. Do you think it has the potential to recover?"

Unfortunately, the chart does not paint a good picture. In a single week in July, the stock fell 55%. That kind of move is a heart stopper for any holder, and simple momentum rules taught in any structured education would have signalled an exit well before that.

This is an extremely low cap stock trading at 0.018 cents, and it looks likely to break its previous low. There are no positive technical signals at this stage. If your experience level is not intermediate to high, this is not a stock you should be trading. Please reach out to the team directly for a personal discussion, because being in a heavy loss without a clear exit plan is not a position anyone should be in.

Minerals 260 (MI6) and Portfolio Structure

George writes: "42 years old, single father and can't afford to buy a property. I just started investing in the stock market a couple of months ago and am learning as I go. 50% of my investing is dollar cost averaged towards Minerals 260, and the other 50% of my investments are dollar cost averaged into VAS and VGS, which are two ETFs, split 70/30. Would love to hear your analysis and thoughts on Minerals 260 as well as my portfolio set up with the plan of buying and holding for the long term."

This raises important questions about strategy alignment. ETFs give you broad market exposure, but if the market falls 15%, so does your ETF. Combining passive ETF investing with a highly volatile speculative stock like MI6 creates strategy contradiction, they are almost opposite approaches. 

The bigger concern with dollar cost averaging into ETFs on the way up is that when the market eventually turns, and it will, one significant downturn can wipe out years of accumulated gains, especially on the units purchased at higher prices near the top of the cycle.

For someone trying to grow capital as quickly as possible for a specific goal like a property deposit, active management, knowing when to buy and sell, locking in profits, and riding trends, is often the faster and safer path. It sounds counterintuitive, but the passive route carries hidden risk that only reveals itself when the cycle turns.

On the MI6 chart specifically, the stock looks like it is coming back to the angle of its trend and trying to find support. Reporting season could be the deciding factor. A break back below the trend line in any strength would be concerning, but a move back above 75 cents would suggest recovery is on. If you are still holding, set a clear stop loss and know your exit point.

If you want to learn how to actively manage your portfolio and grow capital more efficiently, explore our trading courses, which cover exactly this kind of decision making.

Cobra Resources (CBE): Support or Warning Signs?

Jason writes: "I'd love to hear your thoughts on Cobra Limited. The company has transformed over the past few months following its acquisition of a majority interest in the Sierra Atacama copper project in Chile, and it has also recently completed a heavily supported $90 million placement at 30 cents. With copper prices remaining strong, does the current chart suggest the stock is finding support and setting up another move higher, or are there warning signs that investors should be aware of? I bought it at 25 cents."

On the monthly chart, the stock has traded above previous highs around 27 cents but has since been rejected. Volume has been steadily increasing on the weekly chart, which is a positive sign of maturing investor interest. However, previous falls of 44% and 42% suggest the current 48% decline may have more to go. The stock is showing a textbook pattern of a fall, a pause, and then continuation, which signals more commitment to the downside.

The line in the sand is 24 cents. If Cobra breaks that level, a deeper move towards 20 cents becomes likely, where it would test the overall momentum line. On placements, it is also worth noting how heavily subscribed the raise was. When placements are 100% filled by institutions, that is a strong signal. Anything less can leave lingering weakness on the chart. Set your stop loss carefully and be prepared for further downside before any rebound.

Ready Tech (RDY): Short to Medium Term Trade Setup

David writes: "Would you mind looking at RDY? I am considering an entry at $1.78 for a short to medium term trade with possible upside to around $2.30. My main concern is a gap on the weekly around $1.40."

Interestingly, that $1.40 level coincides with previous support for the stock, so the gap is not a major concern. The stock has already attempted to fill it.

The stock has made multiple attempts to move higher and could retest the $1.40 area before breaking out. When it does break out of the current consolidation, it is likely to run. The $2.30 target sits within a reasonable resistance zone, and with smaller stocks it is better to think in ranges rather than single price levels, so anywhere between $2 and $2.50 is the ballpark. David's timeframe is important here, on the monthly chart it is too early, so this only works as a short to medium term trade with tight stop loss management.

Hammer Metals (HMX): Trading on Takeover Speculation

Adam writes: "Been watching Hammer Metals. It's a copper gold play and currently there have been two companies, Lovato Resources and Austral Resources, that are in a bidding war to acquire these assets which gives me confidence that there are some juicy gold copper deposits in the Mount Isa region. Would love to know what your thoughts are on the chart and the company."

The monthly chart looks flat, but the weekly chart shows a stock that has genuinely changed character since 2020, with rising volume and higher bases. From a technical view, it is interesting.

However, trading purely on takeover speculation is a dangerous game. If a bid is withdrawn or the discussion goes quiet, these low liquidity stocks can tank on news alone. There is also the question of what lesson you learn from a trade like this. If it works, can you repeat it? Probably not.

Consider this framework, would you rather have an 80% probability of winning $1 or a 20% probability of winning $5? Most successful traders take the higher probability every time, then simply scale up. That is the difference between trading big liquid stocks, where you can extract repeatable income, versus betting your luck on speculative small caps. The chart is interesting, but the game is dangerous.

The Bigger Lesson: Trade with Skill, Not Luck

The theme running through this reporting season, and every reporting season, is that skill and preparation separate successful investors from the rest. Whether it is understanding sector rotation, reading a chart with clarity, setting a clear stop loss, or knowing when to take profits, these are learnable skills.

If you want to develop the skills to analyse stocks like a professional, explore our range of share trading education courses. For those just starting out, the Short Course in Share Trading offers a solid grounding in the essentials. 

Those looking to take their trading to a professional level should consider the government-accredited Diploma of Share Trading and Investment, while more experienced traders can sharpen their edge with our Advanced stock trading course.

Reporting season is one of the most exciting periods on the market calendar. With the right knowledge, the right analysis, and the right strategy, it can also be one of the most rewarding.

Disclaimer: This article is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.