This Always Happens in July and It’s Big: Buy Now

The hottest month to buy stocks is just around the corner, and the seasonality data backs it up decisively. July has historically been the strongest performing month on the All Ordinaries Index across more than four decades of data, and three ASX stocks are setting up beautifully to take advantage of the tailwind.

In the latest episode of the Hot Stock Tips Show, Filip Tortevski and senior analyst Pedro Banales work through the seasonal evidence, the three stocks that look primed for a strong July, and exactly what investors should be watching to manage these positions like a professional.

Why July is the Strongest Month on the ASX

Seasonality is one of the most underappreciated forces in markets. When you look at the average monthly performances for the All Ordinaries Index from 1983 through to 2026, July consistently ranks as the strongest month for returns. Across more than 40 years of data, the pattern is remarkably stable, which means investors heading into July are walking into a window that has historically delivered some of the best opportunities of the entire year.

This is not a guarantee, and seasonal patterns can break, but the weight of evidence is significant. Combined with stocks that already show strong technical setups, the July tailwind can amplify moves that were already in motion.

1. News Corp (NWS)

The first stock on the watchlist is News Corp, and the thesis here goes well beyond newspapers. Most investors still think of News Corp as a legacy media business, but the reality is dramatically different. The company has signed a major AI licensing agreement with OpenAI and Meta worth hundreds of millions collectively over multiple years. Instead of AI killing media, News Corp is being paid by AI to license its content. That is a structural revenue stream that few investors have fully priced in.

The second driver is REA Group. News Corp holds one of the largest stakes in REA, and REA's latest results showed strong revenue growth and continued strength in the Australian residential property market despite a mixed housing backdrop. Forecast growth for REA sits around 20%, and if interest rates start falling over the coming years, this becomes a significant tailwind that flows directly back to News Corp's valuation.

The Technical Setup

The chart tells the most compelling part of the story. News Corp has moved back to long-term momentum support after breaking through the previous all-time high near $35.50. That level is critical, because it represents the point where the market decides whether the new base is genuine or just a temporary breakout. So far, price is holding above the previous all-time high, which is exactly what investors want to see.

The stock is also sitting back at its long-term rate of rise, which means it is not extended or euphoric in any technical sense. On the weekly chart, the trend from the all-time high has broken through momentum, volume is picking up on up moves and falling away on down moves, and the recent selling exhaustion on 6 February was followed almost immediately by buyers stepping in.

The key levels to watch are $41 holding as support and a break above $44 to confirm the turn. The previous fall measured 37.87% before the prior major rally, and the current correction has measured almost exactly the same at 37%, which sets up a very symmetrical risk-reward opportunity. Below $36 the thesis weakens significantly, but as long as price holds above that level, the probability favours the upside.

2. Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

Lovisa Holdings came up on a fundamental analysis scan, which is worth noting because too many traders ignore the fundamental side entirely. The company has forecast growth across the next three years, a price-to-earnings ratio of 29 which is on the higher side but justified by growth, and pays a 3.5% dividend.

The standout metric is return on equity at 82.6%, which is exceptional for a retailer. When you understand that the business model involves sourcing earrings and accessories from low-cost suppliers and selling them at significant markup through a global store network, the return on equity makes sense. It is one of the most capital-efficient retail businesses on the ASX.

The Technical Picture

The long-term chart shows a clear growth story since 2016, with the stock delivering 503% since breaking out, and previously running close to 1,000% across a 10-year period. What makes the current setup interesting is that the recent correction came back to the long-term trend, bounced off support, and never traded below the $19 level.

This same pattern has played out before. Back at the COVID low, the stock had a similar move where it traded up, came back down, held above the prior low, and then continued higher. The setup repeating now creates a textbook accumulation pattern.

On the weekly chart, Lovisa has consolidated nicely from March through to June and is now poking above the downward momentum line and the $24 resistance zone. Volume is sustained rather than spiking, which is typical of accumulation rather than distribution. The range of $20 to $24 has now been broken to the upside, and if the move holds, the next significant resistance sits at $34. That represents around 37% upside, layered on top of the 3.5% dividend and the structural growth story.

3. Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

Neuren Pharmaceuticals delivered major news on the day of recording, with European regulators recommending approval of the company's Rett syndrome treatment, Daybue. If final approval is granted, Neuren stands to receive a US$35 million upfront payment, ongoing royalties, and potentially hundreds of millions more as European sales scale over time. The stock jumped around 19% on the day.

What makes the technical setup particularly compelling is that the chart was already showing reasons to look at this stock before the news broke. Price had moved back to a critically important level around $11.23, which has been tested in October, May, and again in March, with buyers stepping in each time. The historical pattern is striking. From these levels, the stock previously rallied 134% on one run and another 100% on a separate occasion. These are not small moves.

How to Approach the Trade

The stock is currently operating back on the long-term gradient from 2021, which is exactly the kind of structural support that suggests a sustained move higher rather than a short-term spike. Following the news-driven jump to $16 to $17, a reasonable upside target sits around $22, which represents roughly 47% to 48% upside growth.

The caveat is that buying on the day of major news is always tricky. Looking at historical precedent from 2023, Neuren had a similar gap-up move on positive news that was followed by a period of sideways consolidation before the next leg higher. Patient investors who waited got the stock back around 20% cheaper before the next rally began.

The smarter approach is often to wait for the initial euphoria to settle, look for short-term bar patterns to confirm accumulation, and then time the entry properly. The other possibility is that price continues to accelerate without giving a pullback opportunity, which is why having a structured framework for entries is so important. The current trading range sits between $11 support and approximately $18 to $19 resistance, with the upside target at $22 if the breakout extends.

The Real Skill: Timing Your Entry

The thread running through all three stocks is the same. Identifying a stock with strong fundamentals and a constructive technical setup is only half the equation. The real skill, and where most investors leave money on the table, is timing the entry properly.

Buying on the day of major news without a plan often leads to chasing into resistance and watching the position move against you immediately. Waiting for confirmation of direction, identifying the key support and resistance levels, and only committing when the risk-reward equation is genuinely favourable is what separates structured investors from speculators.

This is exactly what we focus on at Wealth Within. Our share trading education is built around teaching you how to read these setups for yourself, identify the right entries, and manage positions with confidence regardless of market conditions.

For those new to the markets, the Short Course in Share Trading provides the foundational skills needed to read charts, identify trends, and manage risk effectively. If you are ready to commit to a comprehensive, government-accredited program, the Diploma of Share Trading and Investment teaches the full five-step approach for becoming consistently profitable. And for graduates wanting to refine their edge with techniques like time analysis and Elliott Wave, the Advanced stock trading course is the natural next step.

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Final Thoughts

July has historically been the strongest performing month on the ASX, and three stocks are setting up to take full advantage. News Corp offers a structural growth story with AI licensing, REA exposure, and a textbook technical reversal at long-term support. Lovisa combines exceptional fundamentals with a clean breakout from a multi-month consolidation, offering around 37% upside to the next major resistance. Neuren Pharmaceuticals presents a high-conviction setup at a major long-term support level, with regulatory news catalysing what could be another 47% to 48% move higher.

As always, the difference between catching these opportunities and watching them pass is education, structure, and discipline. With the right framework, you can stop reacting to news after the fact and start positioning yourself ahead of the moves that matter most.

Disclaimer: This article is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.