Australia’s Recession Fears: Have We Seen This Before?

Are Australians preparing for a recession or treating one as inevitable before the evidence supports it? Higher interest rates, expensive groceries and rising unemployment make pessimism understandable, but we have heard this story before.

What happened when recession fears surged in 2023?

In early 2023, Deloitte warned that further interest rate increases could tip Australia into recession. The concerns were familiar: squeezed households, weakening confidence and falling property values. Yet Australia avoided a technical recession that year. 

The national accounts recorded growth in every quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, national home values rose 8.1 per cent. Anyone assuming economic anxiety meant further price falls would have been wrong.

There is another side to the story. Output per person fell during 2023, so many Australians genuinely went backwards even as the overall economy expanded. That helps explain why an economy can feel recessionary without entering a technical recession.

What is the Australian economy telling us today?

What about today? Australia grew 0.4 per cent in the June quarter and 2.1 per cent over the year. The latest output figures show expansion, not contraction. Unemployment at 4.6 per cent signals mounting pressure, but it does not mean Australia is in a recession. Inflation of 4.0 per cent, with underlying inflation at 3.6 per cent, further complicates the outlook. More interest rate rises could weaken growth, but that is a risk to assess, not an outcome to assume.

Even if a recession arrives, its severity matters. A short downturn and a prolonged depression have very different consequences. A recession is serious, especially for those who lose their jobs, but simply calling something a recession does not tell us how deep or prolonged the downturn will be.

My view is that now is the time to challenge the crowd’s pessimism. The lesson from 2023 is not that everything always works out. It is that gloomy forecasts can fail while opportunities emerge.

Prepare for difficult conditions and keep some financial breathing room. But do not put every worthwhile decision on hold until the headlines improve. Fear can help us recognise risk, but it becomes costly when we mistake it for certainty.

Best and worst sectors

Information Technology was the best-performing sector so far this week, rising more than 2.7 per cent as Tuesday’s strong rally in Codan, Megaport and WiseTech helped lift the sector. Codan was also boosted by demand for its communications equipment.

Consumer Discretionary gained over 1.7 per cent as lower oil prices offered some relief to the outlook for household spending. Buying in major retailers including Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman led the gains.

Real Estate rounded out the top 3, up over 1.4 per cent, with property stocks rallying on the slightly below-forecast inflation result, as investors reassessed the risk of further increases in borrowing costs.

At the other end of the market, Energy was the worst sector so far this week. It fell more than 2.4 per cent as falling oil prices weighed on producers and investors reassessed the earnings support from September’s elevated crude prices.

Materials was the second-worst sector, dropping just over 1.5 per cent as gold fell and US bond yields climbed, pressuring gold miners and adding to weakness across resources.

Consumer Staples rounded out the worst performers this week, falling over 1.2 per cent as Thursday’s broad sell-off hit defensive shares as well. Rising bond yields and concerns about Australian earnings appear to have outweighed their usual defensive appeal. 

Best and worst stocks

Codan Limited led the ASX Top 100 this week. It climbed more than 29 per cent after a profit upgrade driven by exceptionally strong demand for its drone communications technology in conflict regions.

Northern Star Resources followed, rising over 7 per cent after revealing Gold Fields’ takeover approach, with expectations of an improved offer supporting buying despite the board rejecting the bid.

Seek Limited rounded out the leading performers, also gaining over 7 per cent as bottom pickers drove short-term buying despite the long-term downward pressure the stock faces.

At the other end, Liontown Resources was the weakest performer, falling more than 15 per cent as its $389 million Kathleen Valley expansion increased spending commitments, potentially adding to selling pressure.

Lynas Rare Earths followed, falling over 11 per cent as investors questioned the price and processing risks of its proposed $672 million acquisition of Meteoric Resources.

Cochlear Limited rounded out the worst performers, falling more than 5 per cent as it faced fresh uncertainty after being served with a shareholder class action over its FY2026 profit guidance.

All Ordinaries Index update 

The All-Ordinaries Index has had another volatile week, finishing Thursday down 0.58 per cent. After a promising 0.9 per cent rise on Wednesday, sellers returned on Thursday, driving the market down 1.9 per cent and wiping out those gains. With buyers struggling to hold their ground, 8,600 is now the next important level to watch.

Energy and Materials led the losses, while oil prices have fallen around 16 per cent from their September peak amid reports of increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

For investors, the challenge is to remain patient without losing sight of potential opportunities. Many quality stocks have been caught in the selling, but a falling share price does not necessarily mean a company’s long-term prospects have deteriorated. Equally, a lower price alone is no reason to buy. We still need to see evidence that buyers are returning.

As I’ve mentioned in previous reports, September has historically been a weak month for the ASX, while October has tended to be relatively flat, averaging around negative 0.25 per cent. These seasonal patterns provide context, but price action will ultimately tell us whether the current weakness is easing or has further to run.

The best use of this period is to build a watchlist of companies with sound fundamentals and monitor their charts for favourable technical setups. November has historically been one of the stronger months, which could provide a tailwind if sentiment improves and buyers regain control.

For now, avoid rushing in or allowing daily swings to dictate your decisions. Stay patient, watch the key levels and prepare your next move. The final months of the year could still offer worthwhile opportunities, but being ready also means waiting for the market to give you a reason to act.

Good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookshops and online.