The Oil Trade That Made Millionaires in March is Back On

Just a few months ago, traders who understood how to read the oil market made life-changing returns as tensions between the US and Iran escalated. Now, that same setup appears to be forming again, and traders who know how to combine oil prices with the right stocks stand to benefit the most.

In the latest Hot Stock Tips Show, Filip Tortevski and Senior Analyst Pedro Banales unpack what is happening with the oil price right now, why it matters for Australian investors, and three ASX-listed oil and gas stocks that could benefit if history repeats itself.

What is Happening With the Oil Price Right Now

Back in March, when war broke out between the US and Iran, oil prices surged, climbing towards the 110-117 range, which historically represents the peak for geopolitical risk pricing. That move created an enormous opportunity for traders who caught it early, and equally left those who hesitated stuck in trades that went nowhere for months.

Today, oil prices have returned to a similar starting point, having closed a gap around the $67 level. From a technical perspective, there is a case for oil moving towards 85 dollars in the near term, representing roughly a 20 per cent upside, with a further target near 92 dollars, where significant historical support and resistance exist. Beyond that, the $ 100- $114 zone remains a zone of congestion and volatility.

Longer term, oil has been in a broad upward trend since its low back in 1998, with a pattern of higher troughs supporting the case for continued strength if geopolitical tensions escalate further, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

The key takeaway for traders is that the speed at which oil approaches these crisis-level prices will determine how much opportunity is available. If the move happens quickly, the window to act may only last a matter of weeks. If it unfolds more gradually, there is more time to make informed decisions.

Woodside Energy, the Cream of the Crop

Woodside Energy is one of the largest oil and gas companies on the ASX and has a long history of struggling to break above the 36-dollar level, a barrier that has held since 2013. On the monthly chart, the pattern from March is clear: one strong month of gains followed by months of decline, underscoring just how closely this stock tracks oil prices.

From current levels, there is potential for another 22 to 24 per cent upside towards that 36-dollar barrier, but this should be confirmed by price action rather than anticipated. A key level to watch on the weekly chart is around $29 to $30, with the stock needing to hold above recent lows and show increasing volume to support further bullish momentum.

As a large, well-capitalised company with strong profitability and upcoming projects in both Australia and the United States, Woodside represents what could be considered a higher-probability, lower-risk way to gain exposure to rising oil prices compared to smaller speculative plays.

Viva Energy and Australia's Fuel Security Story

Viva Energy, best known for operating the Geelong oil refinery, is forming a pattern on the weekly chart similar to Woodside, having broken out of an extended period of sideways consolidation. While some may question the long-term demand for refined fuel given the rise of electric vehicles, trucks and aeroplanes remain heavily reliant on traditional fuel sources for the foreseeable future.

There is also a growing narrative about Australia's fuel security, with the country caught without adequate reserves during recent global tensions. This raises the possibility of government support flowing into companies like Viva Energy. On the monthly chart, the stock has already experienced a flush-out and retest of support, suggesting it may now be entering a renewed upward trajectory.

Santos Limited and the Battle at 8 Dollars

Santos Limited has repeatedly struggled to break through the 8 dollar level, a price closely associated with a previous takeover approach. Since 2020, the stock has failed multiple times to sustain a move above this resistance, resulting in a choppy, indecisive trading pattern.

However, recent price action suggests sellers are becoming noticeably weaker at this level compared to previous attempts. Two key levels are worth watching closely: 6.80 dollars as support, and 8 dollars, ideally confirmed by a monthly close above 8.20 dollars, as the level that would signal genuine acceptance of higher prices.

Should Santos clear this barrier while oil prices continue to rise, the stock could potentially move towards the 11 to 11.50 dollar region, representing around 47 to 48 per cent upside from current levels. That said, the stock has previously traded sideways for extended periods, including nearly seven years following its September 2019 close, a reminder of why a disciplined, rules-based approach matters more than simply buying and holding.

Why Understanding the Oil Price Matters for Traders

Across all three stocks, one theme remains consistent: their share price movements are heavily influenced by oil prices. Traders who fail to monitor this relationship risk missing the window of opportunity or holding positions during extended periods of stagnation.

This is exactly why having a structured, tested approach to reading price, volume and market patterns is so valuable, whether trading blue-chip energy stocks or using instruments such as CFDs to gain leveraged exposure to lower-risk, higher-probability setups.

Learn How to Trade Opportunities Like this with Confidence

Recognising these patterns before they unfold, rather than after, is a skill that can be developed through proper trading courses. Wealth Within has spent over two decades teaching Australians how to confidently analyse the market using proven technical and fundamental strategies.

If you are new to investing, the Short Course in Share Trading is a great place to start, covering the foundational tools needed to trade profitably in both bull and bear markets.

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Traders who already have a strong foundation and want to refine techniques such as time analysis and Elliott Wave theory may benefit from our Advanced stock trading course, designed specifically for graduates looking to sharpen their edge.

To stay updated with the latest market insights and stock opportunities, be sure to check out our Australian Stock Market Show, where our analysts regularly break down setups just like this one.

Ready to Learn to Trade Shares With Confidence?

Whether you are looking to learn to trade shares for the first time or want to sharpen an existing strategy, understanding how to combine macro drivers, such as oil prices, with individual stock analysis is a skill that can serve you for a lifetime. To learn more about who we are and why thousands of Australians trust our education, visit Wealth Within.

Disclaimer: This article is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.