Did You Miss the Biggest Money Trade of 2026? You May Get Another Chance

Want to make $100,000 in just 7 days? It might sound impossible, but that's exactly the kind of opportunity the oil market delivered earlier this year, and the big question now is: Could this be your second chance?

When conflict erupted in the Middle East, crude oil exploded more than 70 per cent in just six trading days. That means a $7,000 investment, managed with a professional 5 per cent stop-loss, had the potential to grow to more than $100,000. Opportunities like that don't come around often, but when they do, they can completely change your life. 

Here's why we’re talking about oil

History shows that whenever major conflicts threaten global oil supplies, crude has a habit of making rapid moves towards US$100 to US$110 a barrel. We saw it during the 2008 commodity boom, again in 2011-12 during the Arab Spring and sanctions on Iran, and in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. 

Right now, oil has almost completely erased its recent war rally and is trading back near US$70 a barrel. Beneath the surface, many of the same risks that triggered the last explosive move are starting to build again.

This week, President Trump declared the ceasefire arrangement with Iran effectively over after renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States responded with strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets, while reports suggest Kharg Island, through which most of Iran's oil exports pass, could become a future military target. Unsurprisingly, traders immediately began pricing in the increased geopolitical risk.

At the same time, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains near its lowest level since the early 1980s, leaving less emergency supply available if disruptions worsen. Russia is also continuing to battle refinery disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure, keeping global supply far tighter than many investors realise.

Will oil rise back to $100 a barrel?

Now, none of this means oil is guaranteed to surge back to US$100. Markets never make promises but if you're serious about finding high-probability opportunities before everyone else, this is one market that deserves to be on your radar. The biggest mistake isn't missing the first rally, it's watching the next one unfold while you're still thinking about the last.

Keep oil on your watchlist and watch the chart. Let price confirm the story before risking your hard-earned money and remember this. Earlier this year, the entire move happened in less than a week. If another opportunity emerges, time won't be your friend. The traders who are prepared before the move starts are usually the ones who benefit the most.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors last week?   

The best-performing sectors included Information Energy, up 3.41 per cent, followed by Financials, up 1.80 per cent and Information Technology, up 1.09 per cent. The worst performing sectors included Materials, down 4.35 per cent, followed by Industrials, down 1.72 per cent and Health Care, down 1.19 per cent.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 included Santos Limited, up 7.32 per cent, followed by ASX Limited, up 5.20 per cent and REA Group, up 5.09 per cent. The worst-performing stocks included Pilbara Minerals, down 11.47 per cent, followed by Genesis Minerals, down 9.86 per cent and Evolution Mining, down 9.28 per cent.

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

Last week, the All Ordinaries Index delivered another volatile but ultimately indecisive week. Sellers took control early, pushing the index down around 2 per cent, before buyers stepped back in on Thursday and Friday to limit the weekly loss to less than 0.5 per cent.

The weekly result, however, wasn't the most important takeaway. What mattered was where buyers and sellers chose to defend the market, and it was a familiar story. Sellers once again held firm around the 9,050 level, while buyers successfully defended support near 8,900. That's now three consecutive weeks where the market has been compressed between these two key levels.

History tells us this type of prolonged compression rarely lasts. Eventually one side wins the battle, and when it does, the breakout is often decisive. At this stage, I believe the bulls have the edge. While buyers have repeatedly defended 8,900, two of the past three weekly closes have finished around the 9,000 mark rather than near support, suggesting the bulls are gradually gaining control and refusing to surrender ground.

Sector performance continues to paint a very different picture from the headline index. Materials struggled throughout the week, while Energy emerged as the standout performer. Renewed tensions in the Middle East, with the United States and Iran once again exchanging military strikes, lifted oil prices and reignited investor interest in energy stocks. As we've seen repeatedly over the past year, geopolitical events can quickly reshape sector leadership, creating opportunities in some areas of the market while placing pressure on others.

With little indication these tensions will ease anytime soon, investors should expect volatility to remain elevated. It's also likely we'll continue to see a highly selective market, where individual sectors outperform even if the broader index remains range-bound.

For investors with a short- to medium-term outlook, now is a good time to reassess portfolio positioning. Rather than focusing solely on whether the overall market rises or falls, pay close attention to sector rotation. History shows that periods of higher oil prices, rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty tend to create clear winners and losers. In markets like these, choosing the right sector can be just as important as getting the market direction right.

Good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online.

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