Did You Miss the Biggest Money Trade of 2026? You May Get Another Chance

Want to make $100,000 in just 7 days? It might sound impossible, but that's exactly the kind of opportunity the oil market delivered earlier this year, and the big question now is: Could this be your second chance?

When conflict erupted in the Middle East, crude oil exploded more than 70 per cent in just six trading days. That means a $7,000 investment, managed with a professional 5 per cent stop-loss, had the potential to grow to more than $100,000. Opportunities like that don't come around often, but when they do, they can completely change your life. 

Here's why we’re talking about oil

History shows that whenever major conflicts threaten global oil supplies, crude has a habit of making rapid moves towards US$100 to US$110 a barrel. We saw it during the 2008 commodity boom, again in 2011-12 during the Arab Spring and sanctions on Iran, and in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. 

Right now, oil has almost completely erased its recent war rally and is trading back near US$70 a barrel. Beneath the surface, many of the same risks that triggered the last explosive move are starting to build again.

This week, President Trump declared the ceasefire arrangement with Iran effectively over after renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States responded with strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets, while reports suggest Kharg Island, through which most of Iran's oil exports pass, could become a future military target. Unsurprisingly, traders immediately began pricing in the increased geopolitical risk.

At the same time, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains near its lowest level since the early 1980s, leaving less emergency supply available if disruptions worsen. Russia is also continuing to battle refinery disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure, keeping global supply far tighter than many investors realise.

Will oil rise back to $100 a barrel?

Now, none of this means oil is guaranteed to surge back to US$100. Markets never make promises but if you're serious about finding high-probability opportunities before everyone else, this is one market that deserves to be on your radar. The biggest mistake isn't missing the first rally, it's watching the next one unfold while you're still thinking about the last.

Keep oil on your watchlist and watch the chart. Let price confirm the story before risking your hard-earned money and remember this. Earlier this year, the entire move happened in less than a week. If another opportunity emerges, time won't be your friend. The traders who are prepared before the move starts are usually the ones who benefit the most.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up over 4 per cent, followed by Consumer Discretionary, up over 2 per cent and Information Technology, up over 1.5 per cent. The worst-performing sectors include Materials, down over 6 per cent, followed by Real Estate, down over 1.5 per cent and Industrials, down over 1 per cent.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Santos Limited, up over 7 per cent, followed by ASX Limited and Woodside Energy, both up over 5 per cent. The worst-performing stocks include Genesis Minerals, down over 13 per cent, followed by Evolution Mining, down over 12 per cent and Pilbara Minerals, down over 11 per cent.

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

This week, the All Ordinaries Index slipped just under 1 per cent by Thursdays close, with the market once again failing to break through the stubborn 9,000-point level. In fact, this marks the third consecutive week that the index has tested this resistance without success. The week began on a positive note, but buying momentum gradually faded, with the market once again finding support around the 8,900 level. It's become a familiar pattern over recent weeks: up one day, down the next, with neither buyers nor sellers able to take decisive control.

What we're seeing is a market becoming increasingly compressed. The trading range continues to tighten, and history tells us that periods like this are often followed by a meaningful move in one direction. The question now is simply which side wins.

Sector performance continues to tell a very different story from the headline index. Materials endured a difficult week, while Energy emerged as the clear standout. Renewed tensions in the Middle East, with the US and Iran once again exchanging blows, pushed oil prices higher and reignited interest in energy stocks. As we've seen throughout the past year, geopolitical events can quickly reshape sector leadership, creating opportunities for some industries while weighing heavily on others.

With little sign that these tensions will ease in the near term, investors should expect volatility to remain elevated. It's also likely we'll continue to see an uneven market where some sectors thrive while others struggle.

If you're investing with a shorter- to medium-term outlook, now is a good time to reassess your portfolio. Rather than focusing solely on the direction of the overall market, consider which sectors have historically benefited from higher oil prices, rising inflation, and periods of geopolitical uncertainty. In markets like these, it's often sector selection, not just market direction, that makes the biggest difference.

Good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online.

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