Are We Living Through the Most Manipulated Market in History? Here's What to Do
By Dale Gillham
Here's an uncomfortable question: are markets still rewarding good investing, or simply rewarding whoever can influence the crowd first? Over the past few years, we've watched stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies move on political statements, viral social media posts and unexpected geopolitical events that had little to do with company fundamentals. That's forcing investors to rethink one of the oldest assumptions in finance: that prices always reflect value.
Why today's market feels different
Take Donald Trump, for example. His latest financial disclosure revealed more than US$1.4 billion in income from his family's cryptocurrency ventures during 2025, making digital assets his largest reported source of income. At the same time, his administration has adopted a far more crypto-friendly stance than previous governments. Whether the two are connected isn't the point. The reality is that when influential figures have significant financial exposure to an asset class and the ability to shape policy and investor sentiment, markets become far more difficult for ordinary investors to navigate.
The same questions are being asked in commodity markets. Earlier this year, U.S. authorities began investigating more than US$2.6 billion worth of unusually timed oil trades placed shortly before major announcements relating to Iran and the Middle East. Those announcements sent oil prices sharply lower, leaving many wondering whether some participants knew more than the rest of the market.
Then there's social media. A single post from Elon Musk has repeatedly moved cryptocurrencies, AI stocks and even his own companies within minutes. Algorithms now react faster than humans can read the headline, amplifying moves long before most retail investors have had time to think.
This isn't a conspiracy theory; it's simply the reality of modern financial markets. Politics, billionaires, central banks and algorithms all influence markets. The game has become faster, noisier and, at times, less connected to underlying business fundamentals. So how do individual investors compete? Not by trying to predict the next tweet or political announcement, instead, they need to focus on these three things.
How to invest when markets don't behave normally
- First, follow price before opinion: If the market isn't behaving the way the fundamentals suggest it should, respect the price action. Markets can remain irrational far longer than most investors expect.
- Second, wait for confirmation: Chasing the first move after a headline is often when emotions are highest, and risk is greatest. Patience frequently delivers a better entry and a clearer picture.
- Third, manage risk relentlessly: You can't control the next geopolitical event, a surprise policy announcement, or a viral social media post. You can, however, control your position size, your stop-loss and whether you choose to participate at all.
The biggest edge investors have today isn't having more information, given that everyone receives breaking news within seconds. It’s having the discipline to ignore the noise until the odds are genuinely in your favour.
What are the best and worst-performing sectors last week?
The best-performing sectors included Information Health Care, up 5.55 per cent, followed by Information Technology, up 2.33 per cent and Materials, up 2.09 per cent. The worst performing sectors included Utilities, down 5.73 per cent, followed by Real Estate, down 3.70 per cent and Consumer Staples, down 1.64 per cent.
The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 included Life360 Inc and Genesis Minerals, both up 16.70 per cent, followed by HUB24 Limited, up 15.95 per cent. The worst-performing stocks included APA Group, down 7.80 per cent, followed by GPT Group, down 6.60 per cent and Stockland, down 6.48 per cent.
What's next for the Australian stock market?
The All Ordinaries Index delivered another volatile week, with early selling pressure pushing the market down more than 1 per cent before buyers stepped in strongly on Friday to finish the week up 0.97 per cent.
Take one guess where the buyers emerged. If you said 8,800, well done. If you've been reading our reports, you'll know just how important the 8,800 and 9,200 levels have become. Two weeks ago, sellers successfully defended 9,200. Last week, buyers did exactly the same at 8,800. This tug-of-war has been playing out for months and, until we see a decisive break above 9,200 or below 8,800, investors should expect more of the same: a range-bound market.
Healthcare and Information Technology were the standout performers, suggesting investors are beginning to search for value in sectors that have been out of favour. While the broader market continues to move sideways, this rotation is another reminder that opportunities still exist beneath the surface.
Recent reports of increased short selling in the banking sector suggest some investors are positioning for further weakness. If that view proves correct, Financials could become a significant drag on the broader market. At the same time, Materials continues to attract investment as demand for commodities remains resilient.
The battle lines are now clearly drawn. Will Financials pull the market lower, or will Materials provide enough strength to push it higher? For now, Australia's share market is largely being driven by these two heavyweight sectors, while many others remain caught in the crossfire. That may ultimately prove positive, as several overlooked sectors are quietly beginning to recover and could offer investors attractive opportunities if the broader market finally breaks higher.
Good luck and good trading.
Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online.
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